NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 22: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +500 (Jazz vs. Nuggets)

Lauri Markkanen offers premium value at +500 to net the first basket when the Jazz face the Nuggets. Utah leads the league in jump ball win rate at 77.8%, giving them a strong chance to control the opening possession. That sets the stage for Markkanen to get an early look.

The Jazz reportedly want to build around Lauri Markkanen:

“Lauri draws a ton of interest from around the league. But right now Utah wants to hold on to him & really try to make a run for the future, to improve this team & start to win.”

per @MikeAScotto pic.twitter.com/RIVedRlhd1

— NBA Retweet (@RTNBA) December 16, 2025

He’s the clear offensive focal point for the Jazz, averaging 27.8 points per game while launching nearly 20 shots a night. That high volume, combined with his 46.9% shooting clip, makes him a serious threat to strike first.

Markkanen has already opened the scoring in six games this season, hitting this prop in 25% of his starts. While he’s officially questionable after missing two contests, he’s worth a hard look if cleared to play.

If he’s in, this +500 ticket could turn into one of the sharpest first basket plays on the board. If doesn’t start, the bet will be void.

Wendell Carter Jr. +800 (Magic vs. Warriors)

Wendell Carter Jr. is a sharp play in the first basket market tonight at +800 against the Golden State Warriors. The edge starts at tipoff, where the Magic dominate with a 71.4% jump ball win rate compared to just 31% for Golden State. That early possession gives Carter Jr. a real shot to cash this long-odds prop.

This is, by far, the most explosive and athletic Wendell Carter Jr. has looked in years

So it’s no wonder he’s having his best statistical season since ‘22-23, despite playing on a team with more talent than ever

He’s also shooting a career-high 42.4% from 3 on 2.8 3PA/g pic.twitter.com/7YNVapvE2I

— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) December 6, 2025

Carter has been Orlando’s go-to option to open games, scoring the first basket in 22.2% of their matchups this season with six first buckets already. He’s averaging 12.4 points on an efficient 54.7% from the floor and has stepped up his aggressiveness, putting up 24 shots across his last two games and scoring at least 14 in four straight.

Given his recent volume, efficiency and the jump ball advantage, +800 is excellent value for Carter Jr. to strike first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.