NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 29: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +550 (Magic vs. Raptors)

Looking for value in Monday night’s first basket market? Start with the Orlando Magic. They’ve been dominant off the tip, winning 71.9% of jump balls this season, the best mark among teams in action tonight. That sets them up perfectly to strike first against a Raptors squad that wins just 48.5% of opening tips.

With that edge in hand, Desmond Bane jumps out at +550. Bane has been a steady scoring force in his first season with the Magic, putting up 19.2 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting.

Desmond Bane driving layup cuts the deficit to 3 pic.twitter.com/PS77G1idw6

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) December 28, 2025

More importantly for this market, he’s come out aggressive, attacking the paint and hunting buckets early. Given the Magic’s early-possession edge and Bane’s high usage in those opening sets, this is one of the best first scorer bets on the board.

Victor Wembanyama +480 (Cavaliers vs. Spurs)

With Victor Wembanyama back in the starting five, the Spurs offer serious value in the first basket market Monday night. The 7-foot-4 phenom brings a clear advantage at center court, giving San Antonio a strong chance to claim the opening tip against the Cavaliers.

When Wemby starts, the Spurs have won 71% of their tip-offs, a number that would rank among the league’s best if sustained over a full season. Wembanyama isn’t just winning jump balls, as he’s also leading the charge offensively. He’s putting up 23.9 points per game on an efficient 51.8% shooting clip across 19 appearances.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA ARE YOU SERIOUS??

OH MY.pic.twitter.com/JTPCynUYQI

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) December 28, 2025

Everything runs through him early, and his aggressive mindset makes him the obvious first-option play when the Spurs get the opening possession. At +480, Wembanyama to score the first basket offers real value, especially in a home spot where San Antonio will want to establish the tone quickly.

Devin Booker +550 (Suns vs. Wizards)

Devin Booker is a sharp target for a first basket prop tonight when the Suns take on the Wizards. This is a matchup where possession matters, and Phoenix has a clear edge in that department. The Suns have won the tip 67.7% of the time this season, while Washington trails badly with just a 43.3% jump ball win rate.

That sets up Booker and the Suns to open with the first look at the rim. Booker has the volume and efficiency to capitalize on that opportunity. He’s averaging 25.4 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the floor, and he’s getting up 18 shots a night.

Book it 📚 pic.twitter.com/2GdtWbBlsX

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) December 27, 2025

That kind of usage in early possessions makes him a strong candidate to strike first. At +550, the odds offer solid value on a proven scorer who should have the first crack at putting points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.