NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Lauri Markkanen +550 (Celtics vs. Jazz)

Utah has a real shot at the opening possession against Boston, and that alone puts Lauri Markkanen firmly in play for first basket props. The Jazz have secured the tip in over 70% of games this season, while Boston sits closer to 35 percent. That’s a clear edge pointing to Utah getting the first look.

Lauri Markkanen over his last 5 games

– 29.0 PPG
– 8.4 RPG
– 2.6 APG
– 49.5 FG%
– 39.5 3P%
– 88.9 FT%

Lauri is 10th in the NBA in points per game while also averaging a career high in assists per game pic.twitter.com/E1jvUSO5LB

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) December 29, 2025

Markkanen is the driving force behind Utah’s offense, averaging 27.9 points on 47.6% shooting. He’s cleared 27 points in four straight and leads the team with nearly 20 field goal attempts per game. He doesn’t wait around to get involved either, often hunting early touches and attacking the rim with intent.

If Keyonte George sits, Markkanen’s usage spikes even further. At +550, he’s a strong value play to open the scoring in Salt Lake.

Luka Doncic +500 (Pistons vs. Lakers)

The Lakers are in a strong position to strike first tonight, winning 66.7% of opening tip-offs this season compared to just 40.6% for the Pistons. That early edge makes Luka Dončić at +500 an appealing play in the first basket market.

Dončić continues to produce at an elite level, averaging 33.7 points per game on 46.2% shooting. He’s coming off a 34-point effort against the Kings, where he hoisted up 23 field goal attempts. That volume isn’t unusual, as he’s averaging 22.6 shots per game and often looks to attack immediately out of the gate.

44 FOR LUKA 🔥🔥🔥

Tap to watch the NBA's leading scorer go off: https://t.co/RJZfCec3KK pic.twitter.com/tDKbqyZtB7

— NBA (@NBA) December 19, 2025

In fact, Dončić has taken the first shot in over 25% of games he’s started this season. With his usage, efficiency, and the Lakers’ early-possession edge, the value is clearly there on Dončić at +500 to open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.