NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, December 31: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Wendell Carter Jr. +750 (Magic vs. Pacers)

Wendell Carter Jr. stands out as a strong value pick at +750 to score the first basket in tonight’s Magic vs. Pacers matchup. Orlando has quietly become a go-to team for first basket bettors, winning 72.7% of opening tips, one of the best rates in the NBA. That early edge in possession directly boosts Carter Jr.’s chances.

He’s already delivered in this market, scoring the first bucket in six games this season, good for 18.8% of his starts. The big man has been efficient and assertive, averaging 12.5 points per game on 52.8% shooting, often looking to establish himself early in the paint.

Wendell Carter Jr poster jam, great find Anthony Black pic.twitter.com/j6CVbG777H

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) December 28, 2025

Indiana’s fast pace and leaky defense provide the right setting for a quick Orlando look inside. With the Magic likely getting the ball first, Carter Jr. at +750 is a sharp first basket play worth targeting tonight.

De’Aaron Fox +550 (Knicks vs. Spurs)

With Victor Wembanyama back in the starting five, the Spurs are firmly in play for first basket props, and De’Aaron Fox offers sharp value at +550 in this spot. San Antonio holds a 71.9% win rate on opening tips this season, a notable edge over the Knicks’ 56.3%. That early possession swing makes Spurs players strong first scorer candidates.

While Wembanyama draws defensive attention, Fox has been the engine of San Antonio’s offense lately. He’s averaging 21.6 points on 47.6% shooting, with a healthy 16.1 field goal attempts per game. He’s also heating up, with 27 or more points in two of the last four games, showing a clear willingness to get going early.

Given his aggressive usage and the Spurs’ edge on the tip, Fox at +550 is a strong first basket bet. He’s capable of slicing into the defense and getting a clean look right out of the gate.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.