NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 14: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +450 (Nets vs. Pelicans)

Brooklyn sets up as a strong side to target for NBA first scorer betting when the Nets host the Pelicans on Wednesday night. The edge at the opening tip is significant, with Brooklyn winning roughly 65% of jump balls this season. New Orleans has struggled badly in that area, sitting last in the league after securing just 16.7% of tip-offs.

That possession advantage puts the spotlight squarely on Michael Porter Jr. as the most likely option to score first. Porter has been the driving force of the Nets offense all season and continues to play with confidence from the opening minutes.

List of qualified players in the East averaging 25+ PPG and 7+ RPG:

– Michael Porter Jr.

That’s the list. Now go vote » https://t.co/2uadYF6Jp1 pic.twitter.com/Dr2y1X9met

— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) January 13, 2026

He leads Brooklyn with 25.9 points per game while shooting an efficient 49.1% from the field. Volume supports the case as well, as Porter also paces the team with 18.7 field goal attempts per game. When the Nets get the ball early, the offense consistently flows through him.

With possession likely and Porter’s usage locked in, backing him to score the first basket at +450 offers strong value.

Lauri Markkanen +500 (Jazz vs. Bulls)

Lauri Markkanen stands out as a strong option in the NBA first basket props market as the Jazz take on the Bulls. The setup favors Utah early, especially at center court, where the Jazz have consistently created an edge to start games.

Utah has won 61.5% of its jump balls this season, a sharp contrast to Chicago’s struggles at just 35.9%. That disparity makes the Jazz likely to control the opening possession, which is critical when targeting first scorer props.

Lauri Markkanen vs Cleveland:

28 PTS
12 REB
+18

Averaging a career-high 27.9 PPG this season. pic.twitter.com/LP9IVJplJj

— StatMuse (@statmuse) January 13, 2026

When Utah gets the ball first, Markkanen is often the focal point. He enters the matchup averaging 27.9 points per game while shooting 48.3% from the field and has been in excellent form recently. Markkanen has scored at least 28 points in four of his last five starts, showing both confidence and volume.

With the Jazz favored to get the first look and Markkanen playing aggressive basketball, backing him to score the first basket at +500 offers strong value tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.