NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 15: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +650 (Grizzlies vs. Magic)

This special edition matchup between the Grizzlies and Magic in Germany sets up an intriguing angle in the NBA first basket market. With Franz Wagner returning to the lineup for the first time since December 7, there is added motivation for him to make an immediate impact in front of the home crowd.

Franz Wagner is not listed on the injury report for Thursday’s game against the Grizzlies in Berlin.

He will make his return to the court after missing the last 5 weeks due to a high ankle sprain. pic.twitter.com/2aROIysPSQ

— Orlando Magic HQ (@OMagicHQ) January 14, 2026

Wagner should be aggressive from the opening tip. Prior to his injury, he was averaging 22.7 points per game on 49% shooting while taking 15.9 field goal attempts per night. Those numbers point to a player who is comfortable asserting himself early, especially in a spotlight setting like this one.

The possession edge also favors Orlando. The Magic have been one of the best jump ball teams in the league, winning 77.5% of tip offs compared to 56.4% for Memphis, a figure that dips further without Zach Edey starting. That advantage makes Orlando likely to take the first shot.

At home in Germany with motivation working in his favor, Wagner at +650 is a sharp first basket option.

Victor Wembanyama +380 (Bucks vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama profiles as one of the strongest NBA first basket options on the board when the Spurs face the Bucks. San Antonio should control the opening possession, especially with Wembanyama in the starting lineup. The Spurs are winning 67.5% of jump balls this season, a number that climbs above 70% when Wembanyama is on the floor.

Milwaukee, by contrast, has struggled badly at center court, winning just 25% of its jump balls. That mismatch gives San Antonio a clear edge to open the game with the ball and set up an early scoring opportunity.

Watching Victor Wembanyama handle the ball in the open court and maneuver through traffic at 7’5” is almost surreal

He’s truly generational, because this level of handling and coordination at his height is unheard of pic.twitter.com/TqiAs8AJhy

— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) January 14, 2026

With the expected possession advantage, Wembanyama is the obvious first scorer candidate. He’s averaging 24 points per game on 51.4% shooting and is often featured immediately in the offense. At +380, Wembanyama offers solid value to score the first basket.

LeBron James +500 (Hornets vs. Lakers)

LeBron James shapes up as a strong option in the NBA first basket market when the Lakers take on the Hornets. James has been far more aggressive offensively of late and looks fully back in rhythm after a brief slow stretch.

LeBron James. AT 41 YEARS OLD. 🤯😳

(via @LADEig) pic.twitter.com/4HLyPoFL2f

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 7, 2026

He’s coming off a 31-point performance against the Hawks on 20 field goal attempts and has taken at least 19 shots in three of his last four games. Overall, James is averaging 22.4 points per game while shooting an efficient 51.3% from the field, a clear sign that the Lakers are leaning on him early and often.

This matchup also favors Los Angeles at the opening tip. The Lakers have won 71.1% of jump balls this season, compared to just 47.5% for the Hornets, giving them a strong chance to control the first possession.

That edge and James’ recent shot volume, backing LeBron to score the first basket at +500 offers solid value.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.