NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 22: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +550 (Hornets vs. Magic)

Paolo Banchero shapes up as a strong option in the first player basket market as Orlando takes on Charlotte. Since returning to the lineup, Banchero has played with confidence and purpose, consistently attacking the rim and looking to establish himself early in games.

The matchup also favors Orlando from the opening tip. The Magic have been elite in jump ball situations, winning 76.2% of their tips this season. Charlotte has struggled badly in that area, coming in at just 45.5%. That gap gives Orlando a major advantage to open the game with the ball and immediately run offense through its top scoring option.

PAOLO BANCHERO GAME-WINNER IN BROOKLYN 🚨

PB WITH THE J 🎯 pic.twitter.com/7xONKsOoyI

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) January 8, 2026

Banchero enters the night averaging 20.9 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field. He is averaging 15.8 field goal attempts on the season and has pushed that number to 17.5 shots per game across eight January contests.

With possession edge and early usage, Banchero at +550 is a strong first basket prop bet.

Stephon Castle +700 (Spurs vs. Jazz)

Cleveland is well positioned to strike first in this matchup, with San Antonio is set up well to control the opening possession in this matchup, and Victor Wembanyama anchoring the jump ball at center court. When Wembanyama is involved on the tip, the Spurs consistently gain an early edge, and that advantage should show again against Utah.

The Spurs have won 68.2% of their jump balls overall this season, and that number climbs past 75% when Wembanyama is the one taking the opening tip. Securing the first possession creates a clear path to the first points, especially with San Antonio looking to establish its offense right away.

SHOWTIME STEPHON CASTLE 🤯

WINDMILL JAM PLUS THE FOUL. pic.twitter.com/XLOL1vk270

— NBA (@NBA) January 21, 2026

That is where Stephon Castle becomes the value play. Castle is putting together a strong second season, averaging 16.9 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field. He has also taken on a more aggressive role, logging 12.5 field goal attempts per game.

Getting +700 for him when the Spurs are likely to win the opening possession is excellent value and one of the best NBA first scorer prop bets today.

Luka Doncic +480 (Lakers vs. Clippers)

The Lakers hold a clear edge when it comes to the opening possession in this matchup with the Clippers, and that advantage sets the tone for a first basket look.

They have dominated the jump ball this season, winning 71.4% of opening tips compared to just 48.8% for the Clippers. That gap strongly favors the Lakers to get the first offensive opportunity.

If Los Angeles controls the ball early, the offense is likely to flow through Luka Doncic. At +480, he stands out as a strong value in the first player basket market. Doncic enters the game averaging 33.5 points per contest while shooting 46.7% from the field, and his volume remains among the highest in the league.

LUKA MAGIC 🪄

Doncic recorded his 52nd career 30-point triple-double, passing Nikola Jokic for the 2nd most in NBA history 👏 pic.twitter.com/JHrRcmO9bS

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) January 21, 2026

He is attempting 22.5 field goals per game and has scored at least 30 points in four straight outings. Doncic is well positioned to strike first against the Clippers.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.