NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 26: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +700 (Magic vs. Cavaliers)

Orlando holds a meaningful edge at center court in this matchup, which puts the Magic in a strong position to score the first points against Cleveland. They have been the best jump ball team in the league this season, winning roughly 75% of their tips. That advantage stands out against a Cavaliers group that has won around 60% of its jump balls, giving Orlando the upper hand for the opening possession.

With the ball likely in the Magic’s hands early, Desmond Bane becomes an intriguing first scorer option. Bane has continued to play with confidence and aggression, consistently attacking the rim, shooting from deep, and looking to establish himself early in games. He enters Monday averaging 18.9 points per game while shooting 45.3% from the field.

Desmond Bane C&S three, good team ball movement pic.twitter.com/IeNY4WtNV0

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) January 25, 2026

Volume supports the case as well. Bane is attempting 15.2 field goals per game and looks comfortable within the offense. With Orlando favored to control the first possession, Bane at +700 offers strong value in the NBA first player basket market.

LeBron James +650 (Lakers vs. Bulls)

The Lakers are set up to control the opening possession in this matchup with Chicago, which puts them in an excellent position to score first. Los Angeles has been one of the strongest teams on the opening tip all season, winning around 73% of its jump balls. Chicago has struggled badly in the same area, sitting near a 35% success rate, creating a clear possession edge for the Lakers.

With the first shot attempt likely coming from Los Angeles, LeBron James stands out as a strong first scorer option at appealing first basket odds. James continues to produce at a high level, averaging 22.3 points per game while shooting 50.8% from the field. His efficiency and comfort attacking early make him a reliable option when the Lakers look to establish rhythm.

🔒 pic.twitter.com/JfLrRpqZWl

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) January 23, 2026

The early scoring trends support the play as well. When James is in the starting lineup, he has been the most frequent first scorer for the Lakers, opening games with the first basket in 22.2% of starts.

At +650, LeBron offers strong value in the first player basket market.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.