NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 27: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Dillon Brooks +600 (Nets vs. Suns)

With Devin Booker sidelined, this matchup opens the door for Dillon Brooks to step into an early scoring role for Phoenix against Brooklyn. The Suns are well positioned to control the opening possession, which is a key piece when targeting first player basket props.

Phoenix has been elite on the jump ball all season, winning 71.7% of its tips. Brooklyn has also been solid at 65.9%, but the edge still favors the Suns, giving them the inside track to the first offensive look. That possession advantage becomes even more important with Booker out of the lineup.

Dillon Brooks battled tonight 🙌

26 PTS
5 REB
2 AST
2 BLK
1 STL
11-23 FG pic.twitter.com/KC1uuR5pRK

— PHNX Suns (@PHNX_Suns) January 26, 2026

Brooks is expected to take on added responsibility and look to attack immediately. He enters Tuesday night averaging 20.4 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field. His volume sits at 17.1 field goal attempts per game and that number climbs when Booker is not on the floor.

At +600, Brooks offers strong value as a first basket prop with a clear path to early usage.

Ace Bailey +700 (Clippers vs. Jazz)

Ace Bailey lines up as a strong first player basket option as Utah takes on the Clippers, with the Jazz positioned to control the opening possession. Utah has been solid at center court this season, winning 60.9% of its jump balls. That number stands well above the Clippers at 46.7%, giving the Jazz a clear edge to start the game with the ball.

That possession advantage matters even more with Bailey stepping into an expanded role. With Lauri Markkanen out of the lineup, Bailey has seen his offensive responsibility grow, and he has responded with confident scoring performances.

The rookie has reached double figures in six of his last seven games and has topped 20 points in two of his previous three outings. Bailey has taken at least 15 field goal attempts in each of the last three games and in five of the Jazz’s last six contests.

With Markkanen questionable again, Bailey at +700 offers excellent value to score the first points.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.