NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, January 28: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Magic vs. Heat)

Paolo Banchero checks every box as a top first player basket option as Orlando travels to Miami. The Magic have been one of the most reliable teams on the opening tip all season, and that advantage should translate directly into an early scoring opportunity in this matchup.

Paolo Banchero eurostep tough floater pic.twitter.com/sLPfDlzsO9

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) January 27, 2026

Orlando has won 73.3% of its jump balls, placing it among the league leaders. Miami has been far less consistent at center court, winning just 53.2% of its tip-offs. That gap gives the Magic a strong chance to control the first possession and immediately put the ball in the hands of their best scorer.

Banchero enters the game in excellent form, averaging 21.6 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field. He has scored 23 points in five of his last six starts and is coming off a dominant 37 point performance against Cleveland.

His confidence should be sky-high, so getting +600 on a player likely to take the first shot in this game is one of the top NBA first basket props today.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Spurs vs. Rockets)

San Antonio holds a clear advantage to open this matchup with the ball, which immediately puts the Spurs in a strong position to score first against Houston.

They have won around 70% of their jump balls this season, a number that would be even higher if Victor Wembanyama had been in the starting lineup all year. Houston has struggled badly in this area, winning just 38.6% of its jump balls, making the edge decisive at center court.

With the opening possession likely secured, Wembanyama is the natural target for the first basket. He remains the focal point of the Spurs’ offense and is capable of scoring from anywhere on the floor, whether it is a quick post touch, a roll to the rim, or a clean look from mid-range.

OH MY VIC 😳

📺 FanDuelSN SW pic.twitter.com/RnqTuppO3G

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) January 26, 2026

Wembanyama enters the matchup averaging 24.2 points per game on 50.6% shooting. At +400, the combination of possession advantage and elite scoring versatility makes him a strong first scorer prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.