NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 6: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Bam Adebayo +550 (Heat vs. Celtics)

Miami is positioned well to open this matchup with the first possession, which immediately puts the Heat in play for a first basket look against Boston. The numbers at center court clearly favor Miami in this spot. The Heat have won 57.7% of their jump balls this season, while the Celtics sit at just 45.1%. That edge gives Miami a strong chance to control the opening sequence and get the first quality look at the rim.

When Miami looks to score early, Bam Adebayo has consistently been the go to option. He has already recorded nine first baskets in games he has started and has scored the opening points in 20.5% of Heat games this season. That early usage has been backed by steady volume and confidence.

BAM ADEBAYO ATTACKING THE RIM pic.twitter.com/8TNWxLUNc0

— Heat Clips 🎬 (@MiamiClip) February 4, 2026

Adebayo enters the matchup averaging 18.1 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field. He has taken at least 16 field goal attempts in three of his last four games, showing a willingness to attack right away.

At +550, Adebayo stands out as one of the best NBA first basket prop bets tonight.

Jalen Brunson +500 (Knicks vs. Pistons)

Jalen Brunson stands out as one of the strongest first player basket options as New York takes on Detroit. The Knicks are set up well to control the opening possession, which is a key edge when targeting first scorer props in this matchup.

New York has won 56.9% of its jump balls this season, giving it a clear advantage over a Pistons team sitting at just 40%. That gap at center court points toward the Knicks getting the first offensive look, and the offense is expected to run through Brunson right away.

JALEN BRUNSON IS UNREAL. 🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/IoZjcaqZNt

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) February 5, 2026

Brunson continues to play in full attack mode. He enters the game averaging 27.4 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and remains one of the highest volume scorers in the league.

His 20.6 field goal attempts per game reflect how often he looks to assert himself early and often. Brunson at +500 offers clear value as a first basket bet against Detroit.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.