NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 9: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Nickeil Alexander-Walker +800 (Hawks vs. Timberwolves)

There’s no clear favorite for the opening tip in this clash, with the Hawks winning just under 52% of their first tips this season versus exactly 50% for the Timberwolves. That small edge in favor of Atlanta gives me enough of a reason to look at Nickeil Alexander-Walker at +800.

He’s taken the first shot for the Hawks in over 18% of the games he’s started and is leading the team in first baskets scored. Furthermore, Alexander-Walker has shot at least 15 times in seven games in a row, showing little hesitation to try his luck from all over the court.

The shooting guard is a three-level scorer, which is another reason to trust him at such a high price tonight.

Joel Embiid +500 (76ers vs. Trail Blazers)

This first basket bet is based purely on momentum. Joel Embiid has been back to his best lately, scoring 30+ in six of the last eight game he’s started. Furthermore, the big man has been doing it on excellent efficiency from all over the floor.

Embiid can score from three, is a menace around the rim, and is consistently getting fouled for easy buckets. On top of that, the 76ers star is shooting 18.2 times per game this season, with this number surpassing the 20 mark in the past month.

The only point of concern for this bet are the tip-off stats that suggest it will be close (54.7% vs. 53.8% in Portland’s favor). Still, this bet is often settled on the second or third possession, so I’m happy to take the risk of Portland shooting first.

Backing Embiid is still one of the best first basket props at +500 today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.