NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 11: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Bucks vs. Magic)

Paolo Banchero stands out as a strong NBA first basket option on Wednesday night against the Bucks. The Magic are one of the league’s best jump ball teams, winning 71.2% of tip-offs, which puts them in a great position to control the opening possession.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, has struggled badly at center court, winning just 29.4% of jump balls, giving Orlando a clear edge early. With that advantage, expect Banchero to get involved right away.

Paolo Banchero tough driving eurostep layup pic.twitter.com/q9XjxCtlKF

— The Magic Way (@MagicFilmRoom) February 10, 2026

He leads the Magic with 21.4 points per game while shooting 45.7% from the field, and the offense consistently runs through him to start games. At +600 odds, Banchero offers solid value to score the first basket against the Bucks.

Dillon Brooks +650 (Thunder vs. Suns)

The Suns are well positioned to score the first points in this matchup, as they continue to be one of the NBA’s strongest jump ball teams. Phoenix has won 71.7% of tip-offs this season, compared to just 55.6% for the Thunder, giving the Suns a clear edge for the opening possession.

With that advantage, Dillon Brooks stands out as a strong first scorer option at +650. Brooks has been aggressive from the opening tip all season, averaging 21.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting.

DILLON BROOKS IS ON AN ABSOLUTE HEATER.

15 POINTS TO START THE GAME IN Q1.

🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/OQkrNZ3BAu

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) February 11, 2026

His offensive usage has spiked recently, with at least 23 field goal attempts in each of the last three games and 20 or more attempts in three of the Suns’ previous four contests.

Given his assertive early-game approach and Phoenix’s likelihood of controlling the first possession, Brooks offers solid value to score the first basket.

Ace Bailey +900 (Kings vs. Jazz)

Ace Bailey is flashing excellent value in the NBA first basket market tonight against the Kings. At +900 odds, Bailey offers strong upside to score the first points, especially with the Jazz holding a clear edge in the opening tip.

Utah has won roughly 65% of jump balls this season, while Sacramento has managed just 43.6%, giving the Jazz a strong chance to control the first possession. Bailey continues to grow more comfortable as a rookie and is contributing consistently on the offensive end, averaging 11.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting.

Ace Bailey. Windmill slam ‼️

Utah holds the lead in Q3… Tap to watch: https://t.co/IEazKddbsN pic.twitter.com/KJC38rB8kT

— NBA (@NBA) February 8, 2026

He’s also trending upward, scoring at least 16 points in three of Utah’s last four games while showing increased aggression. With Utah likely to get the first look and Bailey attacking early, +900 represents outstanding value for a first basket prop tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.