NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Chet Holmgren +450 (Bucks vs. Thunder)

The Bucks have struggled badly in jump ball situations this season, winning just 29.4% of tip-offs, one of the lowest marks in the league. That weakness gives Oklahoma City a strong edge at center court, as the Thunder have captured 55.6% of jump balls. The possession advantage clearly leans toward OKC in this matchup.

At +450 odds, Chet Holmgren stands out as a strong first scorer option. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined, Holmgren has stepped into a larger offensive role and become the focal point early in games. He’s averaging 17.5 points per game on an efficient 56.3% shooting from the field.

Pure filth down low 🤢 pic.twitter.com/rSbx9T62s9

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) February 12, 2026

Holmgren has also been one of the Thunder’s most reliable early-game scorers, leading the lineup with nine first baskets and scoring first in 19.1% of the games he has started.

Given the Thunder’s edge in the opening tip and Holmgren’s expanded role, +450 presents solid value for an NBA first basket prop bet.

Austin Reaves +600 (Mavericks vs. Lakers)

Austin Reaves stands out as one of the top NBA first scorer options in this matchup. The Lakers are in a strong position to control the opening possession, winning 64.2% of their jump balls this season compared to just 41.5% for the Mavericks. That edge at center court gives Los Angeles the likely first look at the basket.

With Luka Doncic sidelined, more offensive responsibility shifts elsewhere, and Reaves is well positioned to take advantage. He’s putting together an impressive campaign, averaging 25.7 points per game on an efficient 50.8% shooting from the field.

Austin Reaves, smooth like butter 🧈 pic.twitter.com/Pp4ZM5Llvd

— ESPN Los Angeles (@ESPNLosAngeles) February 10, 2026

Reaves is also getting steady volume with 15.7 field goal attempts per game, showing consistent aggression. Given the Lakers’ jump ball advantage and Reaves’ expanded scoring role, +600 offers strong value for a first basket prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.