NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, February 27: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Evan Mobley +650 (Cavaliers vs. Pistons)

Evan Mobley stands out as one of the strongest NBA first scorer options on the board tonight. At +650 odds, there’s solid value backing the Cavaliers’ big man to open the scoring.

With Donovan Mitchell dealing with injuries recently, Mobley has taken on a larger offensive role and has been more assertive early in games. He’s already recorded nine first baskets this season, cashing in 20.9% of his starts, an impressive hit rate in the first points market.

Mobley enters averaging 17.5 points per game on an efficient 51.4% shooting from the field. While he has been managing a calf issue, he’s cleared to start, which keeps him firmly in play for early involvement.

Evan Mobley vs. New York Knicks 2/24/2026

12 PTS | 4-7 FG | W 109-94 pic.twitter.com/0lN7A9StZl

— NBA Shooting Audit (@NBAShotAudit) February 25, 2026

Cleveland also holds a significant edge in the jump ball matchup, winning 63.3% of tip-offs compared to just 42.1% for Detroit. That advantage increases the likelihood of the Cavaliers getting the first possession and running an opening set through Mobley.

With usage trending upward and a clear possession edge, Mobley at +650 deserves strong consideration as a first basket prop bet tonight.

Michael Porter Jr. +500 (Nets vs. Celtics)

Michael Porter Jr. has emerged as one of the most reliable first basket producers in the NBA this season and stands out again in this matchup. He leads the Nets with 10 first baskets and ranks near the top of the league in first points scored.

Porter Jr. has cashed as the first scorer in 22.2% of his starts, an impressive conversion rate in this market. He’s also been highly productive overall, averaging 24.6 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field. With 18.4 field goal attempts per matchup, the highest on the Nets, he consistently looks to establish himself early.

Michael Porter Jr. 34 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST, 12/20 FG, 6/10 3FG, 76.6 TS% Vs Mavs Dec 12 2025 pic.twitter.com/HJA13yoCTZ

— Nets Performances (@BKNPerformances) February 17, 2026

Brooklyn also holds a notable edge in the jump ball department, winning 59.6% of tip-offs compared to 41.4% for Boston. That advantage increases the likelihood of the Nets getting the opening possession and creating an early scoring opportunity.

With strong usage, proven first basket production, and a projected possession edge, Porter Jr. at +500 is a top NBA first scorer prop bet today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.