NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 3: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +575 (Wizards vs. Magic)

Paolo Banchero is one of the top NBA first scorer bets tonight. The Magic have a clear advantage for the opening possession, winning 67.8% of jump balls compared to just 31.7% for the Wizards. That edge gives Orlando the likely first look at the basket.

Banchero enters this matchup averaging 21.8 points per game on 45.2% shooting. He’s been aggressive and efficient recently, scoring 19+ points in five of his last six games.

Paolo Banchero passes Dwight Howard for the 3rd most 35-point games in Magic history.

Only TMac & Shaq have more. pic.twitter.com/Y3I5aQtTW1

— Real App (@realapp) February 25, 2026

At +575 odds, Banchero offers strong value to open the scoring and is one of the best NBA first basket prop picks for today.

Devin Vassell +800 (Spurs vs. 76ers)

Spurs’ guard Devin Vassell stands out as one of the top value plays in the NBA first scorer market today. The Spurs are in a strong position to control the opening possession, especially with Victor Wembanyama handling tip-off duties.

With Wembanyama in the lineup, San Antonio leads the league in jump ball success at a 75% win rate, giving them a high probability of getting the first shot opportunity. That sets up Vassell nicely at +800 odds.

He has already recorded nine first baskets this season, cashing in 20% of his starts, one of the stronger hit rates on the roster. Vassell enters this matchup averaging 14.4 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and has been trending upward offensively, scoring 18 or more points in three of his last four outings.

Big time stuff from Devin Vassell pic.twitter.com/FQEObqBruu

— Basketball University (@UofBasketball) February 24, 2026

With the Spurs likely to secure the opening possession and Vassell proving to be an effective early-game scorer, +800 presents excellent value for NBA first basket prop bets tonight.

Devin Booker +600 (Suns vs. Kings)

Devin Booker stands out as one of the best NBA first scorer props for tonight. The Suns are expected to control the opening possession, winning 70% of jump balls compared to 46.8% for the Kings.

Booker is returning from a brief absence but remains a top option for the Suns. He’s scored eight first baskets in 19% of his starts this season and is averaging 24.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting.

DEVIN BOOKER FOR THE WIN!!! 🚨🤯 pic.twitter.com/emPLtn6Bbl

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 5, 2026

Given his aggressive scoring style and the team’s jump ball advantage, backing Booker at +600 for the first basket offers solid value for your NBA first scorer prop bets.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.