NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Green +550 (Suns vs. Pacers)

Suns’ Jalen Green stands out as a strong value option to score the first basket when the Suns face the Pacers. Phoenix holds a significant edge in the opening tip, winning 72.3% of jump balls, one of the best marks in the NBA. Meanwhile, Indiana has managed just 46.2%, which gives the Suns a strong chance to control the first possession.

If Phoenix secures the opening tip, Green should be one of the primary options to take the first shot. He’s been playing well recently and has been getting involved early in games.

Jalen had him in another zip code 🫨 pic.twitter.com/BCK62bEhoo

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) March 11, 2026

Green is averaging 15.4 points per game this season and has been more aggressive offensively in recent outings. He has attempted at least 17 field goals in four consecutive games, well above his 15.1 shot attempts per game season average.

His production has also increased in March, where he’s averaging 21.2 points per game on 41.3% shooting, showing that he’s in a solid rhythm offensively.

With Phoenix likely to control the opening possession and Green trending upward as a scorer, +550 odds offer appealing value for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Nuggets vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama is a strong option in the first basket market when the Spurs take on the Nuggets. San Antonio has a major advantage in the opening tip, leading the NBA with a 75.4% jump ball success rate, which greatly increases their chances of controlling the first possession.

With Wembanyama at center, the Spurs are frequently able to win the opening tip thanks to his size and reach. If San Antonio secures the ball first, there’s a strong chance the offense flows through their star big man right away.

Wemby got KAT with the pump fake 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ffbo5Nkj35

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 1, 2026

Wembanyama has been excellent offensively, averaging 24.2 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field. His ability to score in multiple ways, inside, mid-range, or from the perimeter, makes him a dangerous option to open the scoring.

Given San Antonio’s advantage in the jump ball and Wembanyama’s recent scoring form, +400 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop in this matchup. He is currently listed as questionable on the injury report, but if Wemby starts, he’s the clear play.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.