NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +500 (Spurs vs. Heat)

Victor Wembanyama continues to headline the first basket market as the San Antonio Spurs take on the Miami Heat.

San Antonio holds a clear edge at center court, winning 75% of jump balls, the best mark in the league. With Wembanyama handling the tip, the Spurs are in a strong position to secure the opening possession, even against a solid Miami team that sits at 60.6%.

THE POST MOVE.
THE HAMMER.

This Wemby dunk is just nuts 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nDwdynbOg1

— NBA (@NBA) March 14, 2026

That early possession is key, especially with Wembanyama’s offensive versatility. He can score from anywhere on the floor and is often involved right away when the Spurs get the first look.

He enters averaging 24.3 points per game on 50.4% shooting, leading the Spurs as their primary scoring option. His ability to attack inside or step out makes him a constant threat to open the scoring.

Elite jump ball and a featured offensive role, +500 odds offer strong value for a first basket pick on Wemby.

Desmond Bane +600 (Pacers vs. Magic)

Desmond Bane is a sharp option for NBA first prop betting today as the Orlando Magic take on the Indiana Pacers.

Orlando has a major edge at center court, winning around 70% of jump balls, which puts them in a strong position to control the opening possession. Indiana is at a clear disadvantage in this spot, making the Magic likely to get the first shot opportunity.

In other words, Bane is a strong candidate to capitalize. He’s been aggressive offensively, attacking from all areas of the floor and creating consistent scoring chances.

DESMOND BANE IN THE CLUTCH 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Pyv9efi8Cs

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 12, 2026

Bane enters averaging 20.4 points per game on 48.7% shooting, and his volume has been steady with at least 14 field goal attempts in six of his last seven games. That level of involvement makes him a reliable early scoring threat.

With Orlando likely to secure the first possession and Bane staying active offensively, +600 odds provide strong value for a first basket prop in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.