NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 24: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Green +725 (Nuggets vs. Suns)

Jalen Green clears as a high-value play in the first basket market as the Phoenix Suns clash with the Denver Nuggets.

Phoenix has the edge in the opening tip, winning 69.4% of jump balls compared to 56.9% for Denver. While the Nuggets are solid in this area, the Suns’ advantage still puts them in a strong position to control the first possession.

If Phoenix gets the ball first, Green is a strong candidate to take the opening shot. He’s been aggressive offensively and continues to look for scoring opportunities early in games.

Jalen Green hits the tough triple before the shot-clock buzzer 🚨 pic.twitter.com/qFbShndgMw

— NBA Philippines (@NBA_Philippines) March 23, 2026

Green is averaging 17.6 points per game on 40.5% shooting, and his attacking style makes him a viable option to open the scoring, especially when given the first possession.

At +725 odds, this is a high-upside value play. With the Suns likely to get the first look and Green’s willingness to fire early, he’s a solid option for a first basket prop bet in this matchup.

Jalen Brunson +450 (Pelicans vs. Knicks)

Jalen Brunson is a strong, logical pick in the first basket market as the New York Knicks take on the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Knicks have a solid edge in the opening tip, winning 52.8% of jump balls, while the Pelicans are among the worst in the league at just 22.2%. That gives New York a very good chance to control the first possession.

If the Knicks get the ball first, Brunson is the clear focal point. He leads the team offensively and is highly aggressive right from the start.

Brunson enters averaging 26.1 points per game on 46.3% shooting, while also putting up around 20 field goal attempts per game. His high usage and willingness to attack early make him one of the most reliable candidates to open the scoring.

CAPTAIN COOKING 🔥

Jalen Brunson with 12 early points in the first quarter! pic.twitter.com/ycFwYFQ2UB

— Fireside Knicks (@FiresideKnicks) March 22, 2026

With a strong chance at first possession and Brunson leading the offense, +450 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop in this matchup.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.