NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 26: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +600 (Kings vs. Magic)

Paolo Banchero is a strong value play in the first basket market as the Orlando Magic take on the Sacramento Kings.

Orlando holds a clear edge in the opening tip, winning 70.8% of jump balls compared to 52.1% for Sacramento, giving the Magic a strong chance to control the first possession.

If Orlando gets that first look, Banchero is a prime candidate to capitalize. He’s been extremely aggressive and in elite form offensively.

Paolo Banchero at CLE:

36 PTS
6 REB
5 AST
10-19 FG
13-15 FT pic.twitter.com/Ibp7cejvcr

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 25, 2026

Over his last two games, Banchero has attempted 46 field goals combined, exploding for 39 and 36 points. That level of volume and confidence makes him a top option to open the scoring.

With the Magic likely to secure the first possession and Banchero riding a hot streak, +600 odds offer excellent value for a first basket prop bet.

Jalen Brunson +500 (Knicks vs. Hornets)

Jalen Brunson is a strong and reliable option in the first basket market as the New York Knicks take on the Charlotte Hornets.

The Knicks hold a solid edge in the opening tip, winning around 52% of jump balls compared to 44% for Charlotte, giving them a good chance to control the first possession.

If New York gets the ball first, Brunson is the clear focal point. He’s consistently aggressive and looks to attack early, making him a prime candidate to open the scoring.

Jalen Brunson tonight:

32 Points
7 Assists
11/19 FGM
2/4 3PM
+16 +/-
39 Minutes pic.twitter.com/rlt1yeRSHr

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 25, 2026

Brunson is averaging 26.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting, while also leading the team with around 20 field goal attempts per game. His high usage and scoring mindset make him one of the most dependable first basket options.

With the Knicks likely to get the first look and Brunson leading the offense, +500 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.