NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, March 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jalen Green +550 (Suns vs. Grizzlies)

Jalen Green is a strong value play in the first basket market as the Phoenix Suns take on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Phoenix has a clear edge in the opening tip, winning around 70% of jump balls, while Memphis has dropped to under 40% without key size in the lineup. That gives the Suns a strong likelihood of controlling the first possession.

If Phoenix gets that first look, Green is a prime candidate to capitalize. He’s been increasingly aggressive and has taken on a larger scoring role in the offense.

A NASTY MOVE BY JALEN GREEN 😤

Behind-the-back crossover.
Bucket.

He's got 20 PTS at the break! pic.twitter.com/CtXHQXOSHN

— NBA (@NBA) March 29, 2026

Green is averaging 18.2 points per game on 41.6% shooting, and his recent form shows a clear uptick. He’s coming off a 31-point performance and has attempted 20+ field goals in six of his last 10 games, signaling strong usage and confidence.

With the Suns likely to secure the opening possession and Green in attack mode, +550 odds provide solid value for a first basket prop bet.

Victor Wembanyama +400 (Bulls vs. Spurs)

Victor Wembanyama remains one of the best NBA first basket bets as the San Antonio Spurs face the Chicago Bulls.

San Antonio has a dominant edge at the opening tip, winning over 75% of jump balls, the best mark in the NBA. In contrast, Chicago sits at just 37.8%, giving the Spurs a major advantage to secure the first possession.

With that expected early control, Wembanyama becomes the clear favorite to open the scoring. He’s been one of the league leaders in first basket hits and continues to be the focal point of the Spurs’ offense.

VICTOR WEMBANYAMA GAME WINNER

🔥🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/49T1kX3IVo

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) March 20, 2026

He enters averaging 24.2 points per game on 50.1% shooting, and his versatility allows him to score from anywhere, making him a constant early-game threat.

In elite positioning for the first possession and a featured scoring role, +400 odds still offer solid value for a first scorer prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.