NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 14: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Tyler Herro +550 (Heat vs. Hornets)

As one of tonight’s best NBA first basket prop bets, Tyler Herro offers strong value as the Miami Heat face the Charlotte Hornets at +550 odds.

Miami enters this play-in matchup with the edge at the opening tip, winning 59.8% of jump balls compared to 42.7% for Charlotte. That advantage should give the Heat the first possession and an early opportunity to get on the board.

If Miami controls the opening sequence, Herro is a prime candidate to take that first shot. He has been one of the team’s most reliable offensive weapons, consistently involved in early scoring sets and perimeter looks.

Tyler Herro last Play-In tournament:

🔺34.0 PPG
🔺6.5 RPG
🔺5.5 APG
🔺58% FG
🔺47% 3P

Heat made the playoffs as the 10th seed pic.twitter.com/ogKys4HOyB

— 𝙃𝙀𝘼𝙏 𝙉𝘼𝙏𝙄𝙊𝙉 (@HeatvsHaters) April 13, 2026

Herro averaged 20.5 points per game on 48% shooting during the regular season and comes into this matchup in solid form, scoring 15 or more points in nine of his last 11 games. His confidence and shot volume make him a strong option to capitalize quickly.

While Bam Adebayo is also in the mix, the better price lies with Herro. At +550, he brings the right combination of opportunity and value for a first basket prop bet.

Devin Booker +450 (Trail Blazers vs. Suns)

Devin Booker remains one of the top NBA first points bet as the Phoenix Suns take on the Portland Trail Blazers at +450 odds.

Phoenix holds a clear edge at the opening tip, winning 68.3% of jump balls compared to 52.4% for Portland, putting them in a strong position to control the first possession. That early advantage is key in first basket markets, where opportunity often dictates outcome.

Devin Booker 34 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST, 8/16 FG, 2/6 3FG, 16/19 FT, 69.8% TS vs Magic

3rd youngest to reach 18,000 points. pic.twitter.com/cs0tkV51dQ https://t.co/pWfWjpyV2d

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) April 1, 2026

If the Suns secure the opening look, Booker is the most logical option to convert. He continues to lead the team offensively and thrives in early scoring situations.

Booker is averaging 26.1 points per game on 45.6% shooting, and he’s in elite form with 30+ points in five of his last six games. That scoring surge reflects both confidence and increased aggression, which often translates into early shot attempts.

With the Suns likely to dictate the opening sequence and Booker operating as the primary scorer, +450 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.