NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 17: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Desmond Bane +600 (Hornets vs. Magic)

For one of the best NBA first basket prop bets tight, Desmond Bane stands out as a strong value play as the Orlando Magic take on the Charlotte Hornets at +600 odds.

Orlando holds a massive edge at the opening tip, winning 73.2% of jump balls compared to just 42.7% for Charlotte. That advantage puts the Magic in prime position to control the first possession and generate the opening scoring chance.

Despite the loss, Desmond Bane was extraordinary for Orlando 👏

34 PTS (10-16 FGM)
4 3PM

The Magic will face the Hornets for the East 8-seed on Friday! pic.twitter.com/tscNF1EJT0

— NBA (@NBA) April 16, 2026

If Orlando gets that first look, Bane is a top candidate to capitalize. He has been a consistent offensive force, averaging 20.1 points per game on 48.4% shooting, and continues to play with confidence.

Bane is coming off a huge 34-point performance in the play-in against Philadelphia, showing he’s in rhythm and ready to attack. That aggressive scoring mindset often carries into the early stages of games, especially in high-stakes matchups.

With the Magic likely to dictate the opening sequence and Bane in strong form, +600 odds offer excellent value. He’s a sharp pick to score the first basket in this matchup.

Dillon Brooks +750 (Warriors vs. Suns)

In the second play-in matchup on Friday, Dillon Brooks offers intriguing value as the Phoenix Suns face the Golden State Warriors at +750 odds for one of the best NBA first scorer bets today.

Phoenix enters with a strong edge at the opening tip, winning 69.5% of jump balls compared to 45.1% for Golden State. That advantage should give the Suns the first possession and an opportunity to strike early.

If the Suns control the opening sequence, Brooks is a sneaky, but appealing, option to cash in. He’s never hesitant to attack and has shown a willingness to take early shots, which is key in this market.

Dillon Brooks with the shot clock expiring!

The Suns are on an 11-0 run to start Q4 🔥 pic.twitter.com/nCABmwa08d

— NBA (@NBA) April 15, 2026

Brooks averaged 20.2 points per game on 43.5% shooting this season and remains active offensively with 17.1 field goal attempts per game. He’s also trending upward, scoring 20 points in the play-in and hitting that mark in two of his last three outings.

With Phoenix likely to get the first look and Brooks playing aggressively, +750 odds provide strong upside for a first basket prop.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.