NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +370 (Trail Blazers vs. Spurs)

For one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight, Victor Wembanyama stands out again as a premium option when the San Antonio Spurs meet the Portland Trail Blazers at +370 odds.

San Antonio brings a major structural edge into this matchup, winning 77.1% of jump balls, the best mark in the league. That kind of dominance at center court consistently puts the Spurs in position to dictate the opening possession and generate the first shot of the game.

WEMBY’S PLAYOFF DEBUT WAS HISTORIC 👽

35 PTS
5 THREES
2 BLK
GAME 1 WIN

He sets the Spurs franchise record for MOST PTS in a playoff debut AND becomes the ONLY player in NBA history with at least 35 PTS & 5 3PM in a playoff debut! pic.twitter.com/uHBFmQyN6k

— NBA (@NBA) April 20, 2026

Once they secure the tip, Wembanyama is the natural focal point. His combination of size and skill makes him the primary option on early sets, especially when the goal is to strike quickly. He is averaging 25 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and continues to operate as the centerpiece of the offense.

He has also been in elite scoring form, producing 35 or more points in three straight starts, including a 35-point outing against Portland in Game 1. At this price, Wembanyama remains one of the strongest first basket targets on the board.

Deandre Ayton +650 (Rockets vs. Lakers)

Deandre Ayton is a sneaky NBA first scorer prop against the Houston Rockets in Game 2 at +650 odds.

Los Angeles enters with a clear advantage at the opening tip, winning 65.1% of jump balls compared to just 36.1% for Houston, one of the weakest marks in the league. That gap gives the Lakers a strong likelihood of securing the first possession and immediately looking to establish inside.

If the Lakers control the opening sequence, Ayton becomes a natural target. Without Luka Doncic in the lineup, Los Angeles is expected to lean more on interior scoring, which increases Ayton’s early-game involvement in the paint.

Deandre Ayton held his own tonight:

19 points
11 rebounds
8/10 FG

Made a huge impact in Game 1. pic.twitter.com/PHgJ3E99G6

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) April 19, 2026

Ayton is coming off a 19-point performance in Game 1 and closed the regular season with 22 points against Utah, showing he can finish efficiently when opportunities are created. His role as a finisher around the rim makes him a logical candidate for an opening possession look.

With the Lakers likely to win the tip and Ayton positioned for early touches, +650 odds present solid value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.