NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 27: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +650 (Pistons vs. Magic)

For one of tonight’s best NBA first basket bets, Franz Wagner presents strong value as the Orlando Magic take on the Detroit Pistons in Game 4 at +650 odds.

Orlando enters with a clear edge at the opening tip, winning 74.1% of jump balls, the second-best mark in the NBA. Detroit sits at just 43.5%, giving the Magic a strong likelihood of securing the first possession and setting the tone early.

If Orlando controls the opening sequence, Wagner is a logical candidate to take the first shot. He has played a consistent and aggressive role throughout the series, regularly involved in the offense from everywhere on the floor.

FRANZ WAGNER CLUTCH

🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/PUBd5MuxrM

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) April 25, 2026

Wagner has scored 17 or more points in two of three games in the series, and in three of his last four games overall, showing steady production. His activity level is also notable, with 42 field goal attempts in the series, signaling a clear willingness to initiate offense.

With Orlando likely to get the first look and Wagner heavily involved, +650 odds provide solid value for a first basket prop bet in Game 4.

Devin Booker +600 (Thunder vs. Suns)

The first basket market in this matchup leans toward Phoenix taking early control, and that puts Devin Booker in a strong position to open the scoring.

The Suns have been reliable at the opening tip, winning 68.2% of jump balls compared to 52.9% for Oklahoma City. That edge increases the likelihood of Phoenix getting the first shot and dictating the game’s first possession.

Booker is the natural focal point in that scenario. He has been in strong scoring form, posting 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games. In a high-stakes Game 4 setting, Phoenix is expected to put the ball in his hands immediately to establish rhythm early.

Book has passed Steve Nash for 2nd on the Suns all-time playoff scoring list. pic.twitter.com/L6BJ6Tf509

— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 25, 2026

With his consistent scoring output and clear role as the primary option, Booker is well positioned to capitalize on the opening possession. At +600 odds, he offers strong value as a first basket candidate against the Thunder.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.