NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 29: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Jarrett Allen +500 (Raptors vs. Cavaliers)

The first basket market in this Game 5 matchup leans toward Cleveland controlling the opening possession, and that immediately puts Jarrett Allen in a strong position at +500.

The Cavaliers have been efficient at the tip, winning 65.1% of jump balls compared to just 43% for Toronto. That edge increases the likelihood of Cleveland getting first crack at the basket and dictating the early pace.

Allen has consistently been involved in early scoring opportunities this season. He has recorded the first basket in 23.3% of games he has started, showing clear value as an opening possession finisher. His role as a primary interior target makes him a natural fit when Cleveland wins the tip.

JA PUNCHES IT OFF THE DRIBBLE! #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/Pt7tlbOmEz

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 18, 2026

Production wise, Allen is averaging 15.4 points per game while shooting an efficient 63.8% from the field in the 2025-26 season. That efficiency around the rim is exactly what makes him dangerous in set opening looks.

At +500 odds, Allen is one of the best NBA first basket bets today.

Paolo Banchero +650 (Pistons vs. Magic)

For one of the best NBA first scorer picks, Paolo Banchero is a strong value play as the Orlando Magic take on the Detroit Pistons in a potential series clincher at +650 odds.

Orlando enters with a clear advantage at the opening tip, winning 73.3% of jump balls, good for second-best in the NBA. Detroit sits far behind at just 44.2%, giving the Magic a strong chance to secure the first possession and set an early tone.

If Orlando wins the tip, Banchero is the most natural candidate to take the first shot. He remains the centerpiece of the offense and is consistently involved in early-game scoring actions.

Paolo Banchero in Game 3 vs Detroit:

25 PTS
12 REB
9 AST
3 STL
2 BLK

The youngest player in NBA history with those numbers in a playoff game. pic.twitter.com/P0mdKz5kGk

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 25, 2026

Banchero is averaging 21 points per game while taking 16.8 field goal attempts per contest, reflecting both efficiency and strong usage. That level of involvement makes him a prime option in first basket scenarios, especially in high-leverage playoff moments.

With Orlando likely controlling the opening sequence and Banchero in steady form, +650 odds present solid value for a first basket prop tonight.

Lebron James +475 (Rockets vs. Lakers)

For another NBA first basket prop tonight, LeBron James is a strong option as the Los Angeles Lakers take on the Houston Rockets at +475 odds.

The Lakers hold a clear advantage at center court, winning 66.3% of jump balls compared to just 34.9% for Houston. That edge should translate into the first possession, giving Los Angeles an early opportunity to get on the board.

With the ball likely in his hands right away, James is in a prime position to attack. He has been assertive throughout the series and continues to set the tone offensively from the opening minutes.

LEBRON STARRED IN GAME 2 🌟

👑 28 PTS
👑 8 REB
👑 7 AST

LAKERS TAKE A 2-0 SERIES LEAD! pic.twitter.com/TxXDpKiPpd

— NBA (@NBA) April 22, 2026

James is averaging 21.5 points per game while attempting 16.5 shots per contest, showing consistent involvement in the offense. His ability to create his own shot and finish at the rim makes him a dangerous option on the first possession.

At +475, the value is there for James to score the first basket and get the Lakers started early.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.