NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 4: Best First Point Scorer Bets

OG Anunoby +800 (76ers vs. Knicks)

For tonight’s best NBA first scorer bets, OG Anunoby offers excellent value as the New York Knicks face the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 at +800 odds.

New York enters with a clear edge at the opening tip, winning 53.4% of jump balls compared to 47.2% for Philadelphia. That advantage should give the Knicks control of the first possession and an early opportunity to strike.

If the Knicks execute early, Anunoby is a sneaky but compelling option to get on the board first. He’s coming off a strong series against Atlanta, where he played an efficient and aggressive role within the offense.

OG Anunoby this playoffs:

21.5 PPG
8.7 RPG
1.8 SPG
1.2 BPG
61.1 FG%
56.7 3P% (!!!)

and he only has 2 turnovers. pic.twitter.com/mzSXqJujRv

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 1, 2026

Anunoby averaged 21.5 points per game on an impressive 61.1% shooting, doing so on 12 field goal attempts per game. That efficiency and willingness to take quality looks make him a legitimate first shot candidate.

At +800, the price brings significant upside for a player in form and positioned to capitalize on the Knicks’ early possession.

Victor Wembanyama +350 (Timberwolves vs. Spurs)

The first basket market in this Game 1 matchup clearly leans toward San Antonio controlling the opening possession, making Victor Wembanyama a strong option at +350.

The Spurs have dominated the jump circle all season, winning 77% of tip offs compared to 54.5% for Minnesota. With that kind of edge, San Antonio is in prime position to get the first shot of the game.

.@wemby getting us started 💪

📺 @KENS5 pic.twitter.com/XUFKzUuld1

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) April 11, 2026

If the Spurs secure that opening possession, expect the offense to run straight through Wembanyama. He is the focal point and a matchup problem from anywhere on the floor, making him the most logical candidate to take that first attempt. San Antonio has shown a willingness to get him involved immediately rather than easing into games.

Wembanyama is averaging 21 points per game on an efficient 58.3% shooting from the field. With his scoring versatility and the Spurs’ dominance at the tip, he stands out as a top first basket pick in this spot.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.