NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 5: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +700 (Cavaliers vs. Pistons)

The first basket market in this Game 1 matchup leans toward Cleveland setting the tone early, and that puts Donovan Mitchell in a strong position at +700.

The Cavaliers hold a clear advantage at the opening tip, winning 65.2% of jump balls compared to just 45% for Detroit. That edge gives Cleveland a strong likelihood of controlling the first possession and getting the initial shot attempt.

🪣 First bucket. @JHarden13 ➡️ @spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/mq8ffe7XEC

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 24, 2026

With that in mind, Mitchell stands out as the most dangerous early option. He is an aggressive guard who consistently looks to attack right away, especially in high tempo openings. His recent shot volume reinforces that, with at least 20 field goal attempts in three of his last four games.

Mitchell also has a proven scoring track record against Detroit, averaging 23.1 points per game in the matchup. With Cleveland expected to initiate offense immediately through its primary scorer, Mitchell at +700 offers strong value to record the first basket.

LeBron James +750 (Thunder vs. Lakers)

For tonight’s NBA first basket prop in Game 1 between the Thunder and Lakers,, LeBron James brings strong value at +750 odds as the Los Angeles Lakers face the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Los Angeles enters with the edge at the opening tip, winning 66 percent of jump balls compared to 52.3 percent for Oklahoma City. That advantage should give the Lakers the first possession and a clean chance to initiate the offense early.

If they secure that opening look, James is the clear focal point. He continues to operate as the primary creator and scorer, especially in structured early possessions where the Lakers look to establish rhythm through him.

Tone-setter. Game-changer. The King is one of one. pic.twitter.com/WNyD3SWrHA

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) May 2, 2026

James posted a productive series against Houston, averaging 23.2 points per game on 43.2 percent shooting, while also showing recent scoring bursts with at least 28 points in four of his last five outings. That level of production reinforces his ability to set the tone immediately.

With the Lakers likely to control the opening sequence and James in aggressive scoring form, +750 odds present strong value for a first basket prop tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.