NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 8: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Tyrese Maxey +500 (Knicks vs. 76ers)

For one of the best NBA first scorer bets today, Tyrese Maxey stands out as a strong option as the Philadelphia 76ers face the New York Knicks at +500 odds.

While New York held a slight edge in jump ball success during the regular season, Philadelphia has looked sharper in that area throughout the playoffs. That gives the 76ers a realistic chance to control the opening possession and create the first scoring opportunity.

Maxey in the first half of Game 2:

19 PTS (15 in Q2)
4 REB
4 AST

Sixers are pushing to even the series in Round 2! https://t.co/iLHI1MrGwm pic.twitter.com/e51u3fhwUb

— NBA (@NBA) May 7, 2026

If Philadelphia gets the ball first, Maxey is the clear candidate to lead the attack. He has been one of the team’s most aggressive offensive players all season and continues to carry a heavy scoring workload in this series.

Maxey averaged 28.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting during the regular season and has carried that momentum into the playoffs with 25.2 points per game while averaging 20.3 field goal attempts per contest. He also leads the 76ers in shot attempts, right alongside Jalen Brunson on the other side.

With his scoring volume and ability to attack immediately, +500 odds offer strong value for Maxey to score the first basket tonight.

Victor Wembanyama +390 (Spurs vs. Timberwolves)

The first basket market in this matchup once again revolves around Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio’s dominance at the opening tip.

The Spurs continue to separate themselves from the rest of the league in jump ball success, winning 76.4% of tip offs compared to 54.4% for Minnesota. That advantage gives San Antonio a strong chance to control the first possession and immediately dictate the pace.

Trading blocks… AND BUCKETS!

What a start for Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama 👀 https://t.co/UJbbRyptRH pic.twitter.com/Zj1R8yk3mn

— NBA (@NBA) May 5, 2026

When the Spurs get the opening look, Wembanyama is the obvious focal point. His ability to score from anywhere on the floor makes him one of the most dangerous first basket options in the NBA.

He enters this game averaging 19 points per game on 50% shooting during the playoffs and continues to show an aggressive offensive approach. Wembanyama has also recorded at least 15 field goal attempts in three of his last four matchups, highlighting his consistent involvement.

With San Antonio expected to go to him early, +390 offers solid value for Wembanyama to score the first basket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.