NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 11: Best First Point Scorer Bets

James Harden +900 (Pistons vs. Cavaliers)

For one of tonight’s NBA first basket prop bets, James Harden brings tremendous value as the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Detroit Pistons at +900 odds.

Harden looked vintage in Game 3, delivering a clutch performance to help prevent Detroit from taking a commanding series lead. He finished with 19 points on 8 of 14 shooting and continued the strong postseason form he has shown throughout the playoffs.

JAMES MF HARDEN. WOW pic.twitter.com/ecAc7pwGkv

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) May 9, 2026

He has now scored 18 or more points in eight of his last 10 playoff games while averaging 20.6 points per game on 43.8% shooting overall. That consistent production and aggressive scoring mindset make him an appealing option in the first basket market.

Cleveland also holds a major advantage at the opening tip, winning 65.2% of jump balls compared to just 44.6% for Detroit. That edge should give the Cavaliers the first possession and an immediate opportunity to attack.

With Harden playing confidently and the Cavaliers likely controlling the opening sequence, +900 odds offer massive upside for a first basket prop tonight.

Austin Reaves +650 (Thunder vs. Lakers)

Austin Reaves offers strong value for NBA first basket bets at +650 as the Lakers look poised to control the opening possession.

Los Angeles has been one of the better teams at the tip, winning 65.9% of jump balls compared to 51.7% for Oklahoma City. With DeAndre Ayton holding an edge over Chet Holmgren in the circle, the Lakers are in a strong position to get the first shot opportunity.

If Los Angeles does strike first, Reaves is a solid candidate to be involved. After an underwhelming eight point outing in Game 1, he responded with 31 points in Game 2 and followed that with 17 points in Game 3. His offensive rhythm has clearly improved since returning to the lineup.

AUSTIN REAVES TONIGHT:

31 POINTS
6 ASSISTS
2 REBOUNDS
10/16 FGM
3/6 3PM
38 MINUTES pic.twitter.com/zNw2fUZIBa

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) May 8, 2026

Reaves has also maintained steady shot volume, attempting at least 13 field goals in five games since rejoining the starting unit. With increased involvement and the Lakers likely controlling the first possession, Reaves stands out as a strong first basket option at +650.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.