NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +300 (Timberwolves vs. Spurs)

For tonight’s NBA first basket prop, Victor Wembanyama stands out once again as a premier option as the San Antonio Spurs face the Minnesota Timberwolves at +300 odds.

After avoiding suspension following the Flagrant 2 incident in Game 4, expect the Spurs to make a point of getting Wembanyama involved immediately in front of the home crowd. San Antonio should control the opening tip as well, owning the best jump ball success rate in the NBA at 77%.

Wemby opens the scoring! pic.twitter.com/9KFOaIyK4u

— WembyMuse (@Wemby_Muse) May 9, 2026

Minnesota has been respectable at 53%, but this is still a clear edge for the Spurs and a strong setup for the first possession. Once San Antonio secures the ball, Wembanyama is the obvious focal point to attack early.

The versatile big man continues to impact games from everywhere on the floor. He’s averaging 18.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting during the postseason and remains the centerpiece of the Spurs’ offense.

With the Spurs likely to win the tip and feed their star early, Wembanyama at +300 remains one of the strongest first basket bets on the board tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.