NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 13: Best First Point Scorer Bets

James Harden +1000 (Cavaliers vs. Pistons)

For our best NBA first basket bets tonight, James Harden delivers tremendous value as the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Detroit Pistons at +1000 odds.

Cleveland should control the opening tip, holding a major edge in jump ball success with a 65.6% win rate compared to just 44.7% for Detroit. That advantage gives the Cavaliers a strong chance to secure the first possession and create the opening scoring opportunity.

If Cleveland gets that early look, Harden is in excellent form to capitalize. He’s coming off back to back productive performances with 19 and 24 points, including several clutch baskets in key moments.

James Harden scored 19 vs. Detroit today.

But, none were bigger than his 9 in the 4Q 🎯@cavs take the dub at home in Game 3! pic.twitter.com/b8AvhaFjPc

— NBA (@NBA) May 9, 2026

Harden has scored 18 or more points in 13 of his last 15 games and is averaging 18.8 points per game in the playoffs. His shot volume has also increased, with 13 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, showing a clear willingness to attack offensively.

At +1000, the price is difficult to ignore for a proven scorer playing with confidence and expected to be involved immediately.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.