NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, May 18: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Victor Wembanyama +350 (Spurs vs. Thunder)

For tonight’s NBA first basket prop, Victor Wembanyama stands out as one of the strongest options on the board as the San Antonio Spurs take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final at +350 odds.

San Antonio enters with a massive edge at the opening tip, leading the NBA with a 77.4% jump ball win rate. The Thunder have been respectable at 51%, but this matchup heavily favors the Spurs to control the first possession. If Wembanyama had not missed stretches during the season, that number for San Antonio could easily be even higher.

Expect the Spurs to go directly to their superstar early. Wembanyama has been dominant throughout the postseason, averaging 19.8 points per game on 51.2% shooting, while carrying over the same efficiency from the regular season where he averaged 25 points per game.

Wemby opens the scoring! pic.twitter.com/9KFOaIyK4u

— WembyMuse (@Wemby_Muse) May 9, 2026

His versatility makes him extremely dangerous in first basket markets. Wembanyama can score at the rim, knock down jumpers, and clean up misses around the basket if the first shot does not fall.

With San Antonio likely securing the opening possession and feeding their franchise star immediately, +350 odds make Wembanyama one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.