Are World Cup “Group of Deaths” a Real Phenomenon or Just Another Sports Cliché?

Every time the group draw for soccer World Cups is finished, fans and pundits label one group “The Group of Death”. The term is so big it even has a Wikipedia page and is present in the Cambridge Dictionary! But is this a real phenomenon or just another sports cliché?

I’ve decided to find out (with some help from LLMs) by digging deep and checking whether “Group of Deaths” are as unpredictable as their reputation suggests. I’ve used two different methods to figure it out: one objective approach that’s based on FIFA Rankings and a subjective one that’s based on public perception.

Both proved that “Group of Deaths” are as scary as the name sounds, so let’s start with a few spoilers.

1. Group of Death Data: FIFA World Ranking Method

For this method, I calculated the mean FIFA Rankings of all groups in each tournament since the ranking system was introduced in 1992. The one with the lowest mean rankings in each tournament was determined as the “Group of Death”, while all other groups are just regular groups.

I also determined the favorites to progress from each group based on the rankings. The two teams with the highest rankings were labeled favorites for each group.

I split the favorites into two types: main favorite (team with highest ranking) and secondary favorite (team with second-highest ranking). I provide data for how often each was eliminated in group of deaths vs. regular groups, as well as how often both were eliminated.

The 8 tournaments featured a total of 62 groups, including 8 “Groups of Death”. Here’s what the results show us:

Based on the results, the “Group of Deaths” determined by this method absolutely delivered! Here’s a quick breakdown:

So, yeah, the “Group of Death” phenomenon is 100% real if you go by FIFA Rankings, as the favorites are eliminated significantly more often compared to other groups.

For the record, FIFA rankings use an ELO method to evaluate each team. You can find the full methodology and how it changed throughout the years on the Wiki page on the FIFA Rankings.

2. Group of Death: Public Perception

For that second method, I had a bit of a problem. Finding publications about “Groups of Death” was fairly easy for all tournaments, as you will see in the sources below. However, I had to pick favorites in each group, so I decided to go by FIFA Rankings once again.

While this leads to some level of crossover with the other method, it was the best objective way possible to determine favorites I could think of.

What I did was simple: I picked the “Group of Death” based on media publications and then checked how the favorites did compared to other groups:

The results here are very interesting, as the major favorite was eliminated almost half the time in Group of Deaths, way more often compared to other groups!. The secondary favorite, however, was eliminated 28.6% of the time compared to 44.9% of the time in other groups.

While this might seem odd at first, it actually makes sense. Every single time the major favorite is eliminated, it means at least two of the other three teams make it. And since the main favorite is out so often, the secondary one is more frequently among the nations that progress to the next round.

This becomes clear where you check the “at least one favorite” eliminated data. It shows that at least one of the favorite was out 71.54% of the time!

How to Determine Whether This Is a Real Phenomenon or Just a Cliché? (Methodology)

In theory, a “Group of Death” should be competitive and unpredictable since all teams are strong and have their chances to progress to the next stage. By that logic, favorites in such groups should be eliminated more often than other groups.

It’s a simple but efficient concept, so I decided to compare World Cup “Group of Deaths” to regular groups and see how often the favorites go home.

However, the format of the tournament has changed dramatically throughout the years, so I decided to only focus on World Cup finals with at least 24 teams for the following reasons:

This condition left me with a nice list of 11 tournaments (between 1982 and 2012). Unfortunately, I couldn’t use all of them since the FIFA Rankings were introduced in 1992. There have been 8 tournaments since, which is not the biggest sample size, but it’s not insignificant either.

The next step was to determine one “Group of Death” for each tournament. This was probably the most challenging part of this entire experiment, so I decided to use two different methods as follows:

I tested the “Group of Death” cliché with both approaches to get a more complex answer on whether this phenomenon is real.

Cross-Method Comparison

Here’s what group was selected as the “Group of Death” based on the two methods.

As you can see, there were major differences in both methods! The interesting part is that they both worked, so for betting purposes, you should probably go for both when preparing.

Here’s an overview of how the favorites performed for each tournament included.

FIFA Rankings

Public Perceipton

Conclusion: “Group of Deaths” Are the Real Deal!

Both methods I picked prove that World Cup “Group of Deaths” are the real deal! Of course, you should take this with a grain of salt, as the sample size is small. Still, it looks like the public and FIFA Rankings don’t lie.

What does that mean for the 2026 World Cup? Honestly, not much as the format has changed significantly. There’s no true “Group of Death” this time around because we have more teams and 8/12 third-placed teams will progress to the knockouts.

Does that mean that “Group of Deaths” are actually dead? I guess we’re about to find out soon!