Coral Eclipse Betting Preview: Runner-by-Runner Guide & Best Bets by Ginger Joe

• Constitution River 11/10
• Gethin 4/1
• Hawk Mountain 5/1
• Saddadd 7/1
• A Boy Named Susie 15/2
• Kings Gambit 66/1
• Flushing Meadows 100/1

GETHIN – Owen Burrows

Owen Burrows is a trainer I rate very highly, and when he’s given good horses to work with, he’s more than capable of getting the very best out of them. The Wathnan Racing owned Gethin comes into this race as the second favorite, and I think that’s exactly where he should be in the market.

He brings some very strong form into the contest after finishing just a neck behind Ombudsman in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes last time out. That’s a significant piece of form because Ombudsman was narrowly beaten by Delacroix in last year’s Eclipse, so it gives Gethin a solid benchmark heading into this race and a strong formline to boast.

There are, however, a couple of obstacles to overcome. Four-year-olds haven’t had the best recent record in the Eclipse, and perhaps more importantly, he’ll have to concede 10lb to the three-year-old favourite, Constitution River.

That’s never an easy task in a race of this quality. Even so, his recent form entitles him to plenty of respect, and for me he looks the clear and obvious danger to the market leader. Big chance.

KINGS GAMBIT – Owen Burrows

The second horse on the racecard is the apparent second string for Wathnan Racing, although it’s interesting that they’ve decided to supplement him for the race. The move suggests connections feel he deserves his chance at this level.

Kings Gambit is a solid and consistent performer who rarely runs a bad race, and I can see him travelling well for a long way. However, this is a significant step up in class and, on everything we’ve seen so far, I think he’ll struggle against some of these rivals.

He’s currently rated 109 and would need to find plenty of improvement just to become competitive in a race of this quality, let alone win it. Even a career best performance may not be enough here though, which makes him difficult to fancy.

He’s a really likeable horse, but I just think this assignment may be beyond him, and I find it hard to build a strong case for him this week.

SADDADD – Roger Varian

The Roger Varian-trained Saddadd is a really nice horse, and there is a feeling that he’s still improving now as a four-year-old. The problem is that the amount of improvement he’ll need to bridge the gap to the front two in the market is significant, I feel.

Last time out he finished third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, around three lengths behind Almaqam. If you then tie that form in with Ombudsman, who comfortably had Almaqam behind him next time, it suggests Saddadd still has around 10lb or so to find on the figures to win a race of this quality.

That’s not to say he can’t improve again, because I think there’s every chance he will, and I’d expect him to run another solid race. However, on the literal form lines, he still has a sizeable gap to make up, which makes him difficult to back with any real confidence. If the front two fail to produce their best though, he’s exactly the type of horse who could pick up the pieces and sneak into the frame.

A BOY NAMED SUSIE – Donnacha O’Brien

A Boy Named Susie is an interesting contender in this field and arrives here as one of the more progressive types stepping into Group 1 company for the first time. He’s a horse who has improved steadily with racing and looks the type who is still learning on the job, which leaves the impression there could be more to come.

He has shown a good attitude in his races so far, staying on well and finding extra when asked, which is always a positive when you’re stepping up in class. That said, this is a big jump in grade compared to what he’s been contesting. A Boy Named Susie will need to find another significant step forward to be competitive at this level.

On the positive side, he looks the type who should get a strong pace to aim at, and that could play into his hands if the race gets set up for closers. However, he is taking on proven Group performers here and, on all known form, he does have a bit to find.

He’s a likeable, improving horse who should give his running, but he probably needs a career best to get seriously involved at the finish, and he only has one win to his name.

CONSTITUTION RIVER – Aidan O’Brien

The standout runner in this race looks to be French Derby winner Constitution River off a mark of 119. That represents the highest level of ability on the figures, and he also receives a valuable 10lb allowance from the older horses as a three-year-old.

In recent years, horses like St Mark’s Basilica and Ghaiyyath have taken this race off marks in the mid-120s, so while Constitution River isn’t quite at that level yet, he is certainly moving in the right direction and remains very much an unexposed talent at this level.

The potential upside with him is significant, and receiving weight from his rivals is a major bonus. The form of his French Derby win looks very strong, particularly given he had to overcome the widest draw to get the job done.

That effort can easily be marked up, and it suggests there is more under the bonnet than the bare result might initially suggest. He takes on older horses here for the first time, but on the strength of what he has achieved so far, he looks more than capable of holding his own against them.

HAWK MOUNTAIN – Aidan O’Brien

Hawk Mountain comes into this race having been beaten by Constitution River in the French Derby. He finished runner up behind a stablemate who looks very much on an upward trajectory. On that form line, he does have a bit to find with the winner, and he will need to improve again if he’s going to reverse that result.

He ran a solid race in defeat that day and confirmed himself as a high class performer in his own right. Still, there’s a sense that Constitution River is the more progressive type, particularly under these conditions and stepping into a race like this with further improvement still possible.

Hawk Mountain is a tough, genuine colt who will give his running again, but on the available form he looks to be playing second fiddle to the favorite, and he’ll likely need the front runner to underperform if he’s going to turn the tables.

FLUSHING MEADOWS – Aidan O’Brien

Flushing Meadows is likely to act as the pacemaker for the race and, as a result, it’s very hard to make any sort of serious case for him from a winning perspective. His main role here looks to be ensuring a strong and honest gallop for his more highly fancied stablemates.

He’s a useful sort in his own right but is clearly held by the main contenders on form and will need to drop right out of contention to have any impact at the finish. Realistically, he’s here to set the fractions rather than feature on the line.