Day three of the Yorkshire Ebor Festival is upon us, and we’re into another cracking day of racing. I’m continuing the coverage right through until Saturday, with previews, best bets and analysis from the meeting, all here on The Sports Geek.
I’ve got two bets for Friday, starting with the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup, where I’ve found an unexposed type who I think could have plenty more to offer, and is the one I want to side with in the staying division over the two market leaders.
Then we move on to the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, and this is where you’ll find one of my best bets of the entire week. I’ve got one at around 6/1, and I genuinely think this horse is going to go off considerably shorter on the day. There is plenty to like about the profile, and I’m really confident we can get a big run. I have landed two banker bets, in the first two days, so hopefully we can make it three!
Two selections for day three, including one of my strongest bets of the week. Hopefully we can keep the winners coming and head into Saturday on a high. As always, don’t forget to sign up to The Sports Geek completely free for all of my racing previews, tips and analysis, alongside coverage from across the sporting world. Best of luck!
York Ebor Day Festival Day 3 Best Bets by Ginger Joe (Summary)
| Race | Pick (Odds) |
|---|---|
| 13:50 York – Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) 2m | Carmers 11/2 Each-Way |
| 15:00 York – Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 6f | Marco Polo 6/1 Each-Way |
Race 1: 13:50 York – Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) 2m Odds and Prediction
-
- Cabello De Mar 5/2
- Amiloc 10/3
- Carmers 11/2
- Mount Atlas 9/1
- 12/1 Bar
The Lonsdale Cup looks to be fairly weak this year with regard to pure class, but it doesn’t mean it won’t be a good race, because there isn’t much between a fair few of these.
Caballo De Mar heads the betting here, and to his credit, he is extremely consistent, he is a Group 1 winner in France, and a repeat effort of his peak form has him as an obvious contender here. He does need to bounce back though after finishing last of 11 in the Ascot Gold Cup, despite that being a tougher assignment than this. He has a chance here.
Carters is a lightly raced four-year-old who was a 12 length sixth in the Ascot Gold Cup last time out, and that is a run of huge credit. He travelled well, and just found the company a touch too deep. However, prior to that run, he made his first attempt at the two mile trip, and he won really well at Down Royal and I think they may now have found his trip. He looks rock-solid here to me, and this is a colt that still has improvement in him for sure. A big danger and a solid each-way bet to nothing.
Amiloc hasn’t been in the best form this season, but he has to come into the equation in a weak division, whilst Columbus could certainly surprise a few at much bigger prices for the master Willie Mullins.
From a betting perspective though, I think the way to play this is to back Carmers at 11/2 each-way. I think he is extremely unexposed over this two-mile trip, and I can’t see him being outside of the first three. So he feels like the safe option on this occasion, but a safe option that does have the potential to show more.
Race 2: 15:00 York – Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 6f Odds and Pediction
-
- Arapho Gold 11/4
- Adaay Of Scarlett 4/1
- Marco Polo 6/1
- Mrair 6/1
- 10/1 Bar
The Gimcrack is one of my favorite races of the week, and I think I’ve found an excellent bet in this company.
The favorite is Arapaho Gold for Michael Dods, and this is a really nice two-year-old who made it three wins from three with a decisive victory at Newbury last time out. He only won by a neck, but he was strong through the line, and having already won in Listed company, he is more than entitled to take his chance in a Group 2.
Adaay In Scarlett sets a pretty solid standard, too. He has finished runner-up in three Group 2s coming into this, so you would expect him to run to a similar level again here. If he does, he is probably the benchmark, and if you can beat Adaay In Scarlett, you’re going to be right in the mix.
However, the bet for me is the Ballydoyle runner, Marco Polo, at around 6/1. He has only had one start so far, finishing second in a maiden at the Curragh, but he is entitled to take a huge step forward from that experience. The lack of experience is obviously a slight concern, but the fact Aidan O’Brien is happy to throw him into a Group 2 off the back of just one run is a huge statement of intent.
The yard clearly thinks he is capable of competing at this level, otherwise they wouldn’t be wasting an entry on him. At around 6/1, I think he is a really strong each-way bet to nothing, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a huge performance from him.
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