The Newmarket July Festival gets underway tomorrow, which is a good opportunity to share my best bets for day ! This is one of my favorite meetings of the Flat season. Staged on the iconic July Course, the three -day meeting regularly attracts some of the best sprinters, milers and middle distance horses in training, with Group racing taking center stage each afternoon before Saturday’s feature, the July Cup!
I’ll be covering all three days of the meeting with my best bets, previews and thoughts on the feature races. There are already a few horses that have caught my eye, and I think there are some excellent betting opportunities across the festival if we can get on the right side of the draws. I’ll be taking each day as it comes, highlighting the runners I think are overpriced and explaining exactly why they appeal.
Hopefully we can build a profitable week and head into the weekend with plenty of momentum, before the July Cup takes center stage on Saturday. For now though, let’s get stuck into Day 1. Best of luck if you’re following me in.
14:25 Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) 6f Odds and Betting Pick
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- Inner City Blues 4/6
- Adaay Of Scarlett 2/1
- Hickory Lad 6/1
- Persian String 16/1
Inner City Blues heads the market at short odds for the Group 2 July Stakes, but he isn’t one I’d be rushing to back, despite his obvious potential. There are a couple of reasons why.
On debut at York, he was hugely impressive, travelling well throughout before only being pushed out to score comfortably. He looked a little green early on, yet still won with plenty in hand, which immediately suggested he possesses a fair amount of natural ability.
Considering he cost €900,000 at the breeze-up sales, it was encouraging to see him justify that reputation first time out. The form has already received a boost with both the second and third winning since.
There’s no doubt he’s a very classy colt, but this is a much tougher assignment. Inner City Blues will now have to prove he can back up that debut against two smart rivals who have a lot more experience. He may well be up to the task, but at the current prices, I prefer other options.
Hickory Lad is an obvious alternative at the prices. He brings plenty more experience to the table, having already raced four times, and arrives here on the back of a victory in the Woodcote, a race that has produced its fair share of talented horses over the years.
His form figures of 2121 tell you he’s been remarkably consistent, but I actually think his latest success was comfortably his best performance, and that opens him up to more improvement again. He quickened away nicely inside the final furlong and looked to have taken another step forward. The easier ground may not be ideal, but at around 6/1 in a four-runner race, he looks a perfectly reasonable bet if he is for you.
My selection though, is Adday Of Scarlett for Hugo Palmer and Oisin Murphy. I think he’s a very smart colt with further improvement to come, especially now he has been upped to six furlongs. Although he’s finished second on his last two starts, the latest effort came in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, where he was beaten just half a length by Great Barrier Reef over this trip.
That’s high class form and sets a strong standard for this contest. Inner City Blues undoubtedly has the potential to develop into a top class performer, but this is a significant step up after just one career start.
In what could become a proper battle in the closing stages, I’m happy to side with the proven Group form of Adday Of Scarlett, who just about gets the vote for me over this trip for the second time. I think in a battle, he will out do the favorite, so gets the edge, even if it could be close.
15:00 Betway Handicap 6f Odds and Prediction
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- Thunder Call 4/1
- Calico Blue 5/1
- Red Spells Danger 13/2
- Sea Cookie 8/1
- Ten Carat Harry 10/1
- Man Of Vision 10/1
- Starmade 12/1
- Jazl 12/1
- 14/1 Bar
The three-year-old, six-furlong handicap is one of the trickier races on the card, with several progressive types who could still have plenty more to offer. It’s the sort of contest where you can make a case for a number of runners, but there three in particular catch my eye.
The first is Jazl for the in-form Crisford team. He’s a really eye-catching colt who looked deeply impressive when winning at both Windsor and Leicester before disappointing at Royal Ascot when dropped back to five furlongs.
I’m happy to put a line through that run though, with no obvious excuse. Stepping back up to six furlongs looks a major positive, and so does the return of Jack Mitchell, who was aboard for both of his previous victories.
There wasn’t an obvious excuse for the Ascot effort as mentioned, but everything looks more in his favor this time around. With a short break to freshen him up and the yard back among the winners, he’s firmly on the shortlist.
At a much bigger price, River Spey is one that really interests me. Around the 16/1 mark, I think he’s worth a small each-way play. He looked like a horse going places when winning comfortably at Windsor last time out, and there’s every chance he’s still improving. If that’s the case, there’s a strong argument that the handicapper hasn’t fully caught up with him yet. He’s certainly not without a chance of outrunning his odds.
My main selection, though, is the market leader Thunder Call. I don’t often side with favorites in competitive handicaps, but this looks a horse with considerably more to come. Like River Spey, he appears to be on a steep upward curve, and even with a 6lb rise, I still think he could be ahead of the handicapper.
A repeat of his latest effort would put him right in the mix, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he proves good enough to make the step into Listed company before long. I’ll side with the favorite as my main bet in the race, but River Spey is one I’ll be having a smaller interest on at the bigger price.
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