Royal Ascot Day 4 is headlined by a pair of top quality Group 1 contests, with the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes taking center stage. Both races are restricted to three-year-olds but rovide very different tests and regularly showcase some of the brightest talents in training.
The Commonwealth Cup is one of the premier sprint races of the season, bringing together the best young speedsters over six furlongs, while the Coronation Stakes sees the leading three year old fillies battle it out over a mile in a race that often has a major bearing on the rest of the campaign.
In this preview, I’ll be taking a closer look at both Group 1 contests, assessing the betting odds and key contenders before highlighting the runners that I believe offer the most value. It looks another competitive day from a betting perspective, but there are certainly opportunities to be found if we can identify the right profiles. Let’s get stuck into Day 4 at Royal Ascot.
Royal Ascot Day 4 Best Bets (Summary)
| Race | Prediction + Odds |
|---|---|
| 15:05 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) 6f | HAVANA ANNA Each-Way 9/1 |
| 16:20 Coronation Stakes (Group 1) 1m | PRECISE 4/6 |
15:05 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) 6f Odds, Analysis, and Prediction
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- Venetian Sun 13/8
- Albert Einstein 6/1
- Coppull 12/1
- Havana Anna 12/1
- Division 12/2
- Wise Approach 14/1
- 20/1 Bar
The Commonwealth Cup is a Group 1 contest for three-year-olds run over six furlongs. It has quickly established itself as one of the premier sprint races of the season. It often attracts the best young sprinters from Britain, Ireland and across other countries in the world, with many runners either dropping back from a mile or stepping up in class following strong performances in lesser sprint races.
The race tends to favor horses with a blend of speed, class and the ability to see out the six furlongs strongly. And while natural pace is essential, Ascot’s stiff finish means pure speed alone is rarely enough.
Horses need to travel comfortably through the race before finding another gear in the closing stages, and those that can sustain their effort up the hill are often at a significant advantage.
Recent winners include Inisherin, Shaquille, Perfect Power, Campanelle, Golden Horde and Advertise, with several going on to establish themselves among the elite sprinters in the racing world. That highlights the quality usually required to win this race.
We will start with Venetian Sun who heads the market and is regarded by many as one of the bankers of the meeting. The daughter of Starman enjoyed a superb juvenile campaign, winning her first four starts, including the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville.
Her unbeaten run came to an end over seven furlongs on her final start of the season, but she still ran with plenty of credit in defeat behind a top-class filly in Precise. It was a campaign that firmly established her as one of the best of the current generation.
Venetian Sun was a little underwhelming on her seasonal reappearance, which raised a few questions, but she quickly silenced any doubts with a dominant Group 2 victory at Haydock. Visually, she looked to have strengthened and matured over the winter, and that latest performance leaves her as the clear one to beat, especially with her filly allowance.
Albert Einstein was widely regarded as a star in the making and perhaps there is still time for him. However, he has been a bit underwhelming in comparison to the early expectation. He has been supported in the market, but ultimately, that is likely due to having powerhouse connections and he will need to show more than that to win here.
Coppull won the key trial for this race over course and distance on his seasonal reappearance, and being his first start made the performance all the more encouraging. He showed plenty of ability as a two-year-old, and there is every chance he has improved again over the winter.
Given that his latest victory came in his first start of the season, it’s reasonable to expect further progress. This potential progress makes him an interesting each way contender in what looks a competitive race.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. Wise Approach is a colt I haven’t given up on just yet, and his two-year-old form brings him into the mix here. Things haven’t gone to plan for him since, but if he leaves his form behind from his two starts this season, there could still be a big run in him yet.
The verdict however, goes to Havana Anna for Donnacha O’Brien. She brings some strong form to the table, having finished second to True Love in a Group 1 last season, before returning this year to get off the mark in impressive fashion in a Group 3 at Naas.
I always pay close attention to horses bringing solid Naas form to Ascot, and her overall profile stacks up well against the majority of this field. Havana Anna looks an appealing each-way proposition at the prices. Venetian Sun is arguably the most talented filly in the race, but the gap in the betting between the two looks too wide. On value alone, Havana Anna gets the nod.
16:20 Coronation Stakes (Group 1) 1m Odds, Analysis, and Prediction
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- Precise 4/6
- True Love 3/1
- Touleen 10/1
- Balatine 14/1
- 33/1 Bar
The Coronation Stakes is one of the standout Group 1 races for three-year-old fillies at Royal Ascot, run over a mile and often bringing together the leading milers. It is a race that usually showcases real top-level talent, but this year’s renewal looks a little thinner in depth than usual, with only a small group of runners realistically holding strong claims.
Even so, the race still demands a very specific profile. Fillies need the class to operate at Group 1 level, the tactical speed to hold a position through the early stages, and the stamina to see out Ascot’s stiff mile finish. Those that can travel comfortably before producing a decisive change of gear are typically the ones that prevail.
Touleen is a really nice sort for the Shadwell operation, and Owen Burrows has been quite bullish about her chances here. I actually think Ascot will suit her very well, but the reality is that she still has nearly five lengths to find on True Love. And that’s before we even speak about her stablemate Precise!
The Coronation Stakes does around True Love and her stablemate Precise, with the pair bringing the standout form into the race. True Love arrives as the 1000 Guineas winner at Newmarket, where she showed her usual honest and straightforward profile in a dominant performance.
However, she was beaten by Precise in the Irish 1000 Guineas next time, and on that evidence Precise may well just be the stronger filly of the two. The expectation is that True Love will be ridden positively and could be the first to make a move, but Precise looks the one most likely to be finishing strongest in the closing stages. I also think she will pick off True Love late on.
Beyond the leading pair, it is hard to make a strong case for the remainder on form, with the opposition needing to take a significant step forward to trouble the principals. This is about the Ballydoyle pair, but it’s Precise who gets the vote.
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