Arc week has finally arrived! Even though we don’t have the final field just yet, I am going to take you through some of the contenders currently in the lineup. After I analyze them, you will find my selection for Sunday’s feature race.
As you read through this, bear in mind that there are loads of horses with plenty of class here getting a positive mention. However, stay patient, because I think my selection is the value play in the field based on the prices.
With that in mind, let’s talk about the most likely winners.
2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Contender Analysis
The following horses are most likely to win the 2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe:
1. Daryz
The obvious starting point here has to be with last year’s winner Daryz, who some label as the best horse in the world, and you can certainly make a fair case for that argument. He has been beaten on both occasions when heading over to the UK, but at Longchamp he is 7 wins from 8, and has proven that he absolutely loves the track under all circumstances too.
For example, he won the Prix Aga Khan over 1m1f on very soft ground, but he has also won multiple times over 1m4f on much faster ground too, so he is as versatile as they come.
He came back from Ascot and had a break of 83 days before having his prep run for the Arc in the Prix Foy, and it couldn’t have gone any better for him. He travelled smoothly, sat in second for most of the way round, and when he was asked to accelerate and hit the front, he did it easily and put Bay City Roller to bed with ease.
It was really impressive, and he makes it look so easy. His sire Sea The Stars won this in 2009, but Daryz is looking to go one better and win his second Arc de Triomphe.
I think the likely faster conditions suit him better than once expected, so he will be hard to beat for sure. I suppose the one thing to mention is that Minnie Hauk pushed him every yard last season, so does that make him potentially beatable? Whatever happens, he is the one to beat in here, I just want to take him on at the prices.
2. Maltese Cross
Maltese Cross, also a son of Sea The Stars, is another really interesting contender here, and it’s great to see William Haggas let his three-year-old colt take his chance in the race. The reason he needs to be respected is because he has been trained with these opportunities in mind, on the basis that if things went right, he would earn his position in certain races.
That’s exactly what has happened with Maltese Cross. After finishing second in the Epsom Derby, he was then sent over to Longchamp for the Group 1 Prix de Paris, and this was another really important stepping stone.
He was travelling sweetly the entire way but was dreadfully short of room from nearly half a mile out. Even two furlongs from home he was still stuck for room. At the furlong pole though, he switched right and nudged through a gap to get up before the line. It was a dramatic finish, but it was a really good race to have in the locker.
He found trouble, forced his way through the gap to get out, won quite snugly, and showed a turn of foot. Even more importantly, he now has course and distance form on ground which may not be too dissimilar to what he gets here in the Arc this weekend.
Just to confirm he was good enough though, he then ran in the Voltigeur at York and won like a really smart horse too. So, he is a three-year-old that has ticked a lot more boxes than most three-year-olds usually would have at this stage. This is a very good horse with course form and looks sure to go well, if he is good enough for this level, and we will only find out on the day.
3. Other Dangerous Contestants
There are a bunch of nice fillies and mares in the race too, with Thundering On, the Oaks winner in the lineup. We have Diamond Necklace, who won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at the track and remains unexposed. We have Minnie Hauk, who went close to beating Daryz here last season.
However, the one mare I have landed on for this year’s renewal is the Andrew Balding trained Kalpana, and this is a mare that looks ready for a second crack at the race. She also looks the pick of them for the each-way value too, and I’ll go on to give my reasons why.
Last season, she finished seventh here as a four-year-old, and it remains the only time that she has finished outside of the first three in her career. She has nine wins, six seconds, and four Group 1s on her CV.
Even though she was down the field last year, there is plenty of reason to believe she can improve on that this time around. The first reason is that she got quite far back early in the race last season.
When you look back, apart from Sosie, who finished third, the majority of the front four or five were all handy with the pace early, whereas Kalpana was right out the back, and that was always going to be a struggle for her.
She travelled just as well as ever and tried to make some headway on the home turn, but she was a little wide after being so far back. She was never going to close from there. I suspect they will ride her more handy this time around, because it would be criminal to make that mistake again.
The second reason is that she just looks like a completely different mare this season as a five-year-old, coming into the race this time around in the form of her life. She is actually really unlucky not to be undefeated this season.
She won the Aston Stakes at Newbury on her season debut before getting done on the line by the seven-year-old gelding Giavoletti in the Hardwicke Stakes going down by just a neck. That form is huge.
She then took a nice step forward and has gone on to win two Group 1s, taking the King George at Ascot by beating Calandagan, before being a game winner of the Yorkshire Oaks next time out. She just looks to be bigger and stronger this season, and even though these wins have come with the odd quirk, she does look like she is actually still improving as she gets on.
2026 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Prediction and Best Bets
Kalpana has won all three starts over this trip so far this season, and with the Arc looking likely to be a drier renewal than usual, she could actually enjoy the conditions more than last year.
Juddmonte won this in 2024 with Bluestocking, and Kalpana will be looking to join her as another mare winning in the same silks. She looks like she could be a much better horse as a five-year-old, and with a more prominent ride this season, regardless of the ground, she has to have a rock-solid each-way chance.
Daryz is the one to beat, but Kalpana comes into this primed for another career best, and she gets my vote at 7/1. I can’t see her outside the first three this time.
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