As the top nations converge in Oceania, the 2026 Rugby League World Cup odds have been released ahead of the highly anticipated tournament. Are the top-ranked Aussies prepared to four-peat, or is there set to be a surprise champion?
I explore the latest winner odds, analyze the top contenders, and share my Men’s Rugby League World Cup predictions.
Men’s Rugby League World Cup 2026 Odds
The following Rugby League World Cup winner odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Australia | -125 |
| New Zealand | +200 |
| Samoa | +700 |
| Tonga | +1100 |
| England | +1400 |
| Papua New Guinea | +25000 |
| Fiji | +25000 |
| France | +50000 |
| Cook Islands | +50000 |
| Lebanon | +50000 |
Australia enters the 2026 Men’s Rugby League World Cup as the clear betting favorite at -125, carrying an implied probability of 55.6% of winning the tournament, per top online betting sites. New Zealand follows at +200, translating to a 33.3% implied probability, setting up a potential showdown between the two traditional powerhouses.
Samoa is the third choice at +700, with an implied probability of 12.5%, while Tonga sits at +1100 (8.3%). England rounds out the top five at +1400, affording the English side a 6.7% implied probability of lifting the trophy.
The odds become significantly longer beyond the leading contenders. Papua New Guinea and Fiji are both listed at +25000, equivalent to a 0.4% implied probability each. France, the Cook Islands, and Lebanon are priced at +50000, with each team having an implied probability of approximately 0.2%.
You can find up-to-date odds to win the Rugby League World Cup at BetOnline by navigating to Sports > Rugby League > World Cup.
Men’s Rugby League World Cup Betting Favorites
Prior to locking in my Rugby League World Cup picks, let’s dissect the leading favorites and their rosters for this year’s tournament:
Australia (-125)
Australia enters the 2026 Rugby League World Cup as the favorite at -125, and it is easy to understand why. The Kangaroos are the defending champions after defeating Samoa 30-10 in the 2022 final, securing their 12th World Cup title. They have won nine of the previous 10 tournaments, establishing themselves as the most successful nation in international rugby league history.
Coach Kevin Walters has assembled a talented 23-man squad featuring six potential international debutants. Captain Isaah Yeo will lead a roster combining experienced champions with emerging stars. Yeo is dealing with a pectoral injury, but he is expected to suit up for the national team.
This is us. Your 2026 IRL Rugby League World Cup Kia Kangaroos 🦘 Let's get to business #RLWC26 pic.twitter.com/YejgvaxKwy
— Australian Kangaroos (@Kangaroos) October 5, 2026
James Tedesco, Reece Walsh and Latrell Mitchell headline Australia’s attacking weapons. Tedesco arrives after winning the Clive Churchill Medal in the NRL grand final, while Walsh brings explosive speed and playmaking ability. Mitchell’s return adds another dangerous attacking option.
Cameron Munster, Mitchell Moses and Sam Walker provide quality at halfback and five-eighth, while hooker Harry Grant offers sharp service and creativity around the ruck.
The forward pack is equally impressive, with Yeo, Patrick Carrigan, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Cameron Murray and Liam Martin supplying physicality, defensive work rate and experience. Australia also heads into the tournament after sweeping England in the 2025 Ashes series, providing a strong recent international result before their title defense.
However, the Kangaroos face a challenging opening assignment against New Zealand on October 15. They will also meet Fiji and the Cook Islands in Group A, with the top two advancing to the semifinals. Injuries and the absence of several established stars mean Australia is not unbeatable, but their depth and championship form remains tough to beat.
New Zealand (+200)
Head coach Stacey Jones has named a formidable 23-man squad, with captain James Fisher-Harris leading a powerful forward pack. Fisher-Harris was named Dally M Captain of the Year and Prop of the Year following an outstanding NRL season, while Joseph Tapine, Moses Leota, Leo Thompson, and Naufahu Whyte provide plenty of muscle through the middle.
JUST IN: New Zealand have named their squad for the IRL Rugby League World Cup.
Their first match is against the Kangaroos. Next Thursday, 15th October at Allianz Stadium. Tickets on sale now: https://t.co/DaIsCRkite 🎫#RLWC26 pic.twitter.com/aCJ4vt5Uwa
— NRL (@NRL) October 6, 2026
The Kiwis also possess game-changing talent across their backline. Kalyn Ponga is a major addition after switching his international allegiance to New Zealand, bringing elite speed, footwork and attacking creativity.
Jahrome Hughes is another crucial player, capable of controlling matches with his kicking game and decision-making. Kodi Nikorima, Te Maire Martin, and Jeremy Marshall-King provide additional playmaking options, while Dane Gagai, Ronaldo Mulitalo, and Casey McLean add experience and finishing ability.
New Zealand’s recent results provide another reason for optimism. The Kiwis won the 2025 Pacific Championships, beating Samoa 36-14 in the final after also defeating Australia 30-0 in the 2023 Pacific Championships final. However, they have not reached a World Cup final since their historic 2008 triumph, so there is extra motivation to return to the championship stage.
The opening match against Australia on October 15 will be an enormous test, but also gives New Zealand an immediate opportunity to establish itself as a legitimate title contender. The Kiwis subsequently face the Cook Islands and Fiji in Group A.
If Ponga and Hughes can consistently create opportunities while Fisher-Harris and Tapine control the middle, New Zealand has the talent to win the tournament and deliver value for one of the best Rugby League World Cup picks. This appears to be one of the strongest rosters they’ve had in over a decade.
Samoa (+700)
Samoa is priced at +700 odds to win the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, with the Pacific nation an intriguing contender outside the top two favorites.
Toa Samoa made history at the 2022 tournament by becoming the first Pacific nation to reach the men’s World Cup final. Although Australia defeated them 30-10 in the championship game, Samoa’s run included a stunning 27-26 extra-time semifinal victory over England.
Head coach Ben Gardiner has assembled a dangerous squad featuring several stars with extensive NRL experience. Stephen Crichton, Jarome Luai and Brian To’o headline the backline, bringing proven chemistry from their successful Penrith Panthers days.
Crichton provides leadership and attacking quality in the centres, while Luai is expected to direct the attack at halfback. To’o adds power, speed and finishing ability on the wing.
JUST IN: Toa Samoa have named their squad for the IRL Rugby League World Cup 🇼🇸
Their first match is against France. Next Friday, 16th October at CommBank Stadium. Tickets on sale now: https://t.co/62w2GS6KeA 🎫#RLWC26 pic.twitter.com/smT5qBxo4I
— NRL (@NRL) October 6, 2026
Samoa also boasts tremendous attacking potential through Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Sua Fa’alogo. Tabuai-Fidow is one of the NRL’s most dangerous attacking players, capable of breaking games open with his acceleration and footwork. Fa’alogo adds another explosive option at fullback or in the outside backs.
Up front, Junior Paulo and Spencer Leniu bring size and aggression, while Izack Tago, Deine Mariner, and Greg Marzhew strengthen the team’s attacking options.
Samoa’s recent international results demonstrate that the team can compete with the world’s best. They reached the 2025 Pacific Championships final after beating Tonga, although New Zealand ultimately won 36-14. Samoa also climbed to fourth in the International Rugby League’s men’s world rankings following that campaign.
The challenge is turning that talent into consistent performances across the tournament. Samoa opens against France before facing Papua New Guinea and Pacific rival Tonga, with the Tonga clash potentially determining semifinal qualification.
At +700, Samoa offers a tempting option. The team’s star power and experience from the 2022 final make it a legitimate threat, although beating Australia and New Zealand over the course of the tournament remains a significant challenge.
Rugby League World Cup Longshot Bets
It’s going to be a massive uphill battle for another squad to upend Australia and New Zealand, but here are a couple longshot Rugby League World Cup betting picks worth small plays:
Men’s Rugby League World Cup 2026 Predictions and Betting Pick
The Kiwis have assembled one of their most talented rosters in years, combining an elite forward pack with explosive attacking weapons capable of troubling any opponent. Their 2025 Pacific Championships triumph provides further evidence that this group can deliver on the international stage.
Ponga and Gagai add significant quality after joining the New Zealand side, while Hughes, Nikorima, and Marshall-King provide experience and creativity through the spine. Up front, captain James Fisher-Harris, Naufahu Whyte, Joseph Tapine and Moses Leota give the Kiwis the power and depth needed to compete with Australia’s formidable pack.
Australia remains the defending champion, but there are reasons to question whether the Kangaroos offer the best betting value.
Isaah Yeo is dealing with a pectoral injury, although he has been named in the squad and intends to play. Even if available, his fitness is worth monitoring ahead of the tournament opener against New Zealand. At +200, New Zealand is the best value at a more attractive return than the short-priced favorites. I’m backing the Kiwis to lift their second World Cup trophy and to stop the Australian dynasty.
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