Best NRFI Bets Today – No Runs First Inning Picks UPDATED DAILY

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants

The Blue Jays and Giants headline one of the strongest NRFI opportunities on today’s slate. Dylan Cease and Logan Webb set to square off in a favorable pitching matchup.

Cease has been Toronto’s most dependable starter this season, posting a 2.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 90.1 innings. The right-hander continues to pitch deep into games while consistently limiting damage, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. His ability to miss bats and avoid hard contact makes him an ideal candidate to navigate the first inning cleanly.

Dylan Cease leads the AL Cy Young race at 3.3 WAR, with Cam Schlittler right on his heels at 3.2. Both are dealing: Schlittler owns a 2.08 ERA, Cease has 137 punchies in 90 innings. Parker Messick is lurking at 2.80 ERA. This race is wide open. pic.twitter.com/VNtUFPphKO

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) July 6, 2026

San Francisco counters with Webb, who is in a prime bounce-back spot after a rare rough outing at Coors Field. Prior to that start, the veteran right-hander had surrendered two or fewer earned runs in six of his previous seven appearances and has been especially reliable at Oracle Park, where he owns a 3.33 ERA compared to a 3.66 mark overall.

With Cease pitching like an ace and Webb returning to one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly parks, this matchup has all the ingredients for a scoreless opening frame. As one of the best NRFI bets today, the Jays and Giants should cash.

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox

The Red Sox and White Sox shape up as one of the top NRFI plays on today’s card, with Jake Bennett and Davis Martin both bringing strong recent form into this matchup.

Bennett has quickly established himself as one of Boston’s most promising young arms. The rookie enters with a 3.10 ERA and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four consecutive starts, showing the poise and consistency needed to work through opposing lineups early in games.

Jake Bennett’s last 4 starts:

25.1 IP | 1.78 ERA | 0.67 WHIP | 2 BB | 23 K

The 25-year-old has been DEALING to start his career! pic.twitter.com/vNljuujqQy

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 4, 2026

Chicago will hand the ball to Martin, who has quietly enjoyed an excellent season. The right-hander owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 17 starts and 96.1 innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings. He’s been even tougher at home, compiling a sparkling 0.88 ERA and holding opponents to a .205 batting average at Guaranteed Rate Field.

With Bennett continuing his impressive rookie campaign and Martin thriving on his home mound, this matchup profiles as an early pitchers’ duel. The NRFI stands out as one of the strongest bets on today’s slate.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Brewers and Cardinals stand out as one of the best NRFI bets on today’s slate, with Kyle Harrison and Michael McGreevy both entering in outstanding form at Busch Stadium.

Harrison has quietly developed into one of the National League’s most consistent starters, carrying a 2.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 16 appearances. The left-hander has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 14 of those starts and has already dominated St. Louis, limiting the Cardinals to a .105 batting average in 19 career at-bats.

Kyle Harrison posted the best starter proStuff+ last night at 108 despite getting knocked around in 2.2 innings. Gavin Williams graded at 106 with a similar line. The stuff was there. The results were not. pic.twitter.com/WpVbfl5E5w

— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) July 4, 2026

The Cardinals counter with McGreevy, who has been equally impressive this season. The right-hander owns a 3.12 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 95.1 innings while continuing to deliver quality outings. He’s surrendered two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts and has been especially effective working efficiently through opposing lineups early in games.

With Harrison consistently shutting down hitters and McGreevy matching him with a strong stretch of performances, this matchup has all the makings of an early pitchers’ duel. So, the Brewers and Cardinals are one of the best NRFI prop bets today.

1. Check The Starting Lineups, Especially The Pitchers

You should always begin with the lineups. Check who the starting pitchers are and then go through the latest injuries and suspensions to see whether any of the teams will be missing key pieces.

We usually go to the CBS’ MLB injury report to see who’s out and who’s doubtful. They pull the data directly from league reports, so it’s trustworthy information.

2. Analyzing NRFI Stats

Once we know the most likely lineups, it’s time for a key step of our NRFI betting strategy: analyzing numbers. You need to go through various data points to determine how likely is for the opening inning of a game to end without any runs.

We explore the individual stats of the starting pitchers, we analyze the offensive numbers of both sides, and we also take a look at the total team stats for first inning runs.

Once we have a complete overview of what’s going on, we create our own estimates (in percentages) of how likely it is to see no runs in the first inning.

After that, it’s time to check the odds!

3. Line Shopping

It’s time to check some betting odds! We use two bookmakers that offer daily NRFI betting odds for the MLB: Bovada and Lucky Rebel. We check their prices for all games and turn them into probabilities.

We compare them to our own estimates and when we see good betting value, we place our NRFI wagers!

We strongly recommend using multiple top betting sites yourself for the best results. The two we highlighted above are all excellent for no runs first inning bets.