Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! I go through the odds on any given day to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
I pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as player stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. I explain my approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features my best home run prop picks today.
Best Home Run Bets Today, October 28
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | +875 | |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +550 |
I update these daily, similarly to my NRFI picks, so stay tuned for more picks as long as the season is active!
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for October 28 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks, we have selected the following best HR bets for October 28:
Yandy Diaz (+875) – Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Díaz has delivered some massive moments for the Tampa Bay Rays this postseason, and I’m backing him to come through again in Game 5 of the World Series. At +875, Díaz offers an appealing long-shot price, particularly with the Rays fighting to keep their championship hopes alive.
Díaz enjoyed an excellent regular season, batting .293 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI, and a .805 OPS across 154 games. He also collected 180 hits, demonstrating his ability to consistently put the ball in play. While he isn’t always the first name that comes to mind for a home run prop, his power makes him dangerous when he gets a pitch to drive.
YANDY DÍAZ NO-DOUBT HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/ku7BxY904U
— MLB (@MLB) October 20, 2026
He’s also come through in the clutch this October. Díaz hit a crucial two-run home run in Game 6 of the ALCS against Cleveland, helping the Rays punch their ticket to the World Series. He enters this matchup with two postseason homers and five RBI, and that big swing against the Guardians is a reminder of what he can do when the stakes are highest.
The matchup against Jacob Misiorowski is another reason to consider Díaz. He’s reportedly the only Rays’ hitter to have homered off the Brewers right-hander, giving him an edge. With Tampa Bay desperate for offense, I like Díaz’s chances of delivering another important hit deep.
At +875, I’m taking a shot on the Rays veteran to go deep in Game 5.
Jake Bauers (+550) – Milwaukee Brewers
Jake Bauers is an attractive longshot bet to hit a home run in Game 5 of the World Series, and I’m backing him at +550. The Milwaukee Brewers’ first baseman has legitimate power, and the potential pitching matchup gives this pick an interesting angle.
Bauers enjoyed a productive regular season, showcasing his ability to change a game with one swing. His power makes him a dangerous home run threat when he gets a pitch to drive, and the postseason stage provides another opportunity to deliver a big moment for Milwaukee.
JAKE BAUERS PUTS THE BREWERS BACK IN FRONT! pic.twitter.com/KK8xCFd7j1
— MLB (@MLB) October 15, 2026
His postseason power has been quieter recently, but Bauers remains capable of going deep. He doesn’t have a home run in the World Series yet, making him an appealing option at these odds if he can find his timing against Tampa Bay’s pitching staff.
Tampa Bay hasn’t officially confirmed its Game 5 starter, but Drew Rasmussen could be called upon to pitch on short rest with the Rays running low on options. Bauers is batting .400 (4-for-10) against Rasmussen in his career, giving him a promising track record against the right-hander. Although he hasn’t homered off Rasmussen, that success at the plate suggests he has been able to make consistent contact against him.
With the Rays coming off an extra-inning Game 4 loss, their pitching plans could be stretched again. If Rasmussen gets the start, I’m backing Bauers to take advantage of the matchup and finally go yard at +550.
How We Pick the Best Home Run Bets Today
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent performance trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. Ballparks come with different dimensions and weather conditions that can affect HR rates for that game.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions influence our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages of higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Lucky Rebel.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- Lucky Rebel: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Batter Props.
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