Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, July 4
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | +275 | Bovada |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +300 | Bovada |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +300 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for July 4 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for July 4:
Byron Buxton (+275) – Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have a favorable matchup on the Fourth of July at home! There should be fireworks against Rays’ starter Zack Littell on Friday. Littell has been the worst offender against the home run ball this season.
He’s gotten tagged for 23 home runs in 17 starts in 2025. Look for the Twins to add to Littell’s woes at Target Field. Nothing has improved for Littell recently, either, as he’s given up nine long balls over the last six matchups.
Byron Buxton WAY GONE! pic.twitter.com/JNBV758Fm1
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2025
Byron Buxton is hitting .272 with 19 home runs in 70 games. He’s connected for two home runs over the Twins’ last six games since June 27. Look for Buxton to appreciate facing Littell on July 4th! He’ll likely take advantage of a badly placed ball from Littell, which many batters have done this season.
In other words, Buxton for your best home run bets today is a solid option!
Matt Olson (+325) – Atlanta Braves
The Braves welcome the Orioles to Truist Park to open a three-game series. Charlie Morton, who played for Atlanta from 2021 to 2024, is back to face his former club.
Morton hasn’t found it easy to get accustomed to Baltimore with his new team. He’s on pace for his worst season in the Major Leagues and is likely to receive a rude return to Atlanta on Friday. The 41-year-old veteran enters the Fourth of July with a 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 18 games.
MATT OLSON GRAND SLAM!#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/IrOmpr6ate
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 3, 2025
Matt Olson has recorded a .286 batting average and a home run against Morton in 14 at-bats. Overall, in 2025, Olson has smacked 16 home runs and 56 RBIs in 86 games. He’s having a strong season, and I expect it to get even better tonight!
At +300, Olson qualifies as one of the best MLB HR prop bets on July 4th.
Rafael Devers (+300) – San Francisco Giants
The Giants pack up their bags and travel from the desert to Sacramento, following a 7-2 win over the Diamondbacks. JP Sears is scheduled to get the start for the Athletics at home.
Sears has run into all kinds of issues pitching at Sutter Health Park. He’s conceded 12 home runs with a 6.68 ERA through 32.1 innings of work. On the road, Sears holds a 4.14 ERA with six home runs in 54.1 innings.
Needless to say, Sears is going to be thrilled to get out of Sacramento in the future. Expect the Giants to capitalize on the opportunity to swing deep against Sears. Newly acquired Rafael Devers is catching strong value to hit his 16th home run of the season.
RAFAEL DEVERS HITS HIS FIRST HOME RUN AS A GIANT! pic.twitter.com/rKSfoC63Ss
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 21, 2025
Devers went long for his first home run as a Giant against the Red Sox on June 21. Naturally enough, it had to happen versus Boston. Since then, he added another homer against the Marlins on June 26.
With Sears on the bump in Sacramento, I’m optimistic Devers can take advantage at the A’s minor league ballpark and find his power stroke! With this in mind, consider including Devers as one of the best home run bets today!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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