Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them.
Best Home Run Bets Today, July 26
| HOME RUN BETS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|
| Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox (+400) | Bovada |
| Juan Soto – NY Yankees (+425) | Betwhale |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays (+450) | Betwhale |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for July 26 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for July 26:
Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox (+400)
Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox have a solid pitching matchup to look forward to at Fenway Park tonight. With the Yankees in town, Nestor Cortes Jr. is expected to step onto the mound against the Red Sox.
Cortes Jr. has had a major issue with the deep ball recently, so the Red Sox should have an advantage in this regard. Overall, the pitcher has allowed seven home runs over his previous five starts! He’s coming off a dreadful performance against the Rays, with three home runs conceded last week.
Rafael Devers CRUSHED pic.twitter.com/K9RVgKI6xe
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 14, 2024
Rafael Devers is tied for eighth in the Major Leagues with 23 home runs! He also leads the Red Sox in long balls heading into Friday. Additionally, Devers has done well against Yankee pitching, with 12 homers and 33 RBIs in 110 at-bats.
In 14 at-bats versus Cortes Jr., Devers has hit two home runs and five RBIs! There is a solid chance of him doing damage against Cortes Jr. again tonight at Fenway Park, so consider including him for your best home run bets card!
Juan Soto – New York Yankees (+425)
On Friday, Juan Soto will look to continue swinging a hot bat against the Red Sox. The star has notched three home runs over his past three games. Also, the outfielder has sent four balls over the fence since July 13.
Teammate Aaron Judge has pulled away in the MVP race, but Soto isn’t going away quietly. Overall, Soto has connected for a .311 batting average, 26 home runs, and 72 RBIs.
Juan Soto, good at hitting baseballs a great distance. pic.twitter.com/Bfq26ZpMQN
— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2024
The red-hot Soto’s numbers have been positive against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. Soto is hitting .333, with a double and single in three at-bats. He hasn’t recorded a home run, but tonight looks like a solid opportunity!
Bello has allowed four home runs in his last three starts. He’s also yielded at least one dinger in four of his previous five outings. On the season, Bello has given up 15 home runs in 18 starts. Against a dangerous offense like the Yankees, expect him to run into difficulties.
Judge has a great chance, too, but Soto is by far the best value bet at +425 odds!
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays (+450)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains on fire with a bat in his hand. Despite the trade rumors hovering around Guerrero Jr., he doesn’t seem concerned with the noise. He has smacked four home runs over his last six games!
Since June 3, Guerrero Jr. has ripped 13 home runs in one of the most impressive stretches in the Major Leagues. He can be a hot and cold hitter, and when Vlad Jr. is hot, there aren’t many other hitters that can match his power.
Right now, he is most certainly scorching hot after a slow start to the 2024 campaign.
Vlad Jr. blasts his 5th homer in the last 6 games! pic.twitter.com/GQhCrCrext
— MLB (@MLB) July 24, 2024
Guerrero Jr. has a great experience against the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney in his career. The pitcher has yielded a .750 average and home run to Guerrero Jr. in four at-bats! The Rangers’ starter has allowed 14 home runs in 19 starts this season. He’s had more issues on the road, with eight home runs in opposing ballparks.
With this in mind, ride the hot bat of Guerrero Jr. for your home run bets today!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
