Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! I go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
I pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. I explain my approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight.
Best Home Run Predictions Today, July 31
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | +340 | Lucky Rebel |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | +500 | Bovada |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | +390 | Lucky Rebel |
I update these daily, similarly to my NRFI picks, so stay tuned for more picks as long as the season is active!
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Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for July 31 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for July 31:
Salvador Perez (+340) – Kansas City Royals
Salvador Perez stands out as an intriguing home run prop thanks to a favorable matchup at Coors Field against Tomoyuki Sugano.
The combination of baseball’s most hitter-friendly park and a pitcher who has been susceptible to the long ball creates an ideal opportunity for Perez to add to his home run total. Sugano has allowed 20 home runs in 18 starts this season and has continued to give up damaging contact, making him a pitcher worth targeting with proven power hitters.
“FOR THE RECORD!”
Salvador Perez passes George Brett to become the @Royals all-time home run leader 💪 https://t.co/s6t4FFHPoq pic.twitter.com/H66Xgnr2bb
— MLB (@MLB) July 25, 2026
Perez enters the game with 15 home runs on the season and has been swinging a hot bat, going deep four times over his previous 11 games. He also recently became the Royals’ all-time home run leader, a milestone that reflects the consistent power he has displayed throughout his career.
With Sugano’s recent home-run issues and the altitude at Coors Field helping fly balls carry, Perez has all the ingredients for another big night. His recent power surge, combined with one of the league’s most favorable hitting environments, makes him one of the stronger MLB home run prop bets today.
Brice Turang (+500) – Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang offers excellent value as a home run prop at +500 thanks to a favorable matchup against Angels’ rookie Ryan Johnson. While Turang isn’t typically known as a pure power hitter, he’s developed more pop in 2026, launching 15 home runs and showing a greater willingness to drive the ball in the air.
Brice Turang ties the game for the @Brewers! pic.twitter.com/w8WipPrSZy
— MLB (@MLB) June 30, 2026
He’s also been swinging a hot bat recently, going deep three times since July 9 while providing consistent production near the top of Milwaukee’s lineup. Johnson has endured a difficult rookie campaign, entering the matchup with a 7.34 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.
The biggest concern has been his inability to keep the ball in the park, allowing 11 home runs in just 41.2 innings, including seven over his last five starts. At +500, Turang brings plenty of value for bettors looking beyond the obvious power bats.
His recent surge makes the Brewers infielder one of the stronger options to leave the yard on today’s MLB slate.
Spencer Torkelson (+390) – Detroit Tigers
Spencer Torkelson stands out as one of the top home run prop bets on Friday’s slate, with the Tigers slugger drawing an ideal matchup against Athletics’ left hander Jeffrey Springs.
Playing in the hitter friendly conditions in Sacramento only adds to the appeal, giving one of Detroit’s top power bats another opportunity to leave the yard. Torkelson has already enjoyed success against Springs throughout his career, batting .333 with two home runs in just six at bats. That history suggests he sees the veteran left hander well and can capitalize when Springs makes a mistake in the strike zone.
SPENCER TORKELSON TIES IT AGAIN pic.twitter.com/lBeYWnvxmo
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 29, 2026
The Athletics starter has struggled to keep the ball in the park all season. Springs enters this matchup with a 6.23 ERA and has surrendered 27 home runs across 21 appearances. His recent stretch has been even more concerning, allowing 16 home runs over his last 10 starts while consistently giving opposing hitters opportunities to do damage.
Torkelson enters with 20 home runs on the season and has continued to flash his power with two long balls over his last nine games. Against a pitcher battling major home run issues, he is one of the best home run bets today.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Lucky Rebel.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- Lucky Rebel: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Batter Props.
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