Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, April 18
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | +350 | Bovada |
| James Wood (WSH) | +500 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for April 18 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for April 18:
Juan Soto (+350) – New York Mets
Following a perfect sweep on our MLB home run picks yesterday, we have two more selections on Friday! For the first pick, we’re looking at the Mets’ Juan Soto to take a ball deep against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Veteran starter Miles Mikolas is off the rails to open this season, and I anticipate Soto hitting a bomb in this one. Mikolas holds a 9.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through 13 innings. He got pulled early at Fenway Park after getting hammered for 11 hits and eight earned runs.
With Mikolas struggling to find his form, he is unlikely to have his best effort versus Soto. It wouldn’t be the first time that Soto has taken Mikolas for a ride deep over the fence. He is hitting .333 with one home run and four RBIs versus the veteran Cardinals’ starter.
Juan Soto, who went 13 consecutive games without homering, now has two long balls in his last three at-bats.
This one was of the game-tying variety: pic.twitter.com/PYneeGpPWZ
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 16, 2025
Although Soto isn’t where the Mets want to see him right now, he is always a dangerous threat with his power. Soto has notched a .221 batting average, but evidence of his bat heating up is present recently. Note that the former Yankee has pumped two balls out of the park in two of his last four games.
In short, Soto at +350 odds is a strong bet for your MLB home run props today!
James Wood (+500) – Washington Nationals
One of the best MLB HR props tonight is surely James Wood against the Colorado Rockies! Wood and the Nationals get to take advantage of the thin air in Denver, and I’m confident that he’s going to get in on the fun.
The 22-year-old second-year outfielder is off to a blazing fast start in 2025. Wood has the makings of a stalwart in the Nationals’ lineup for a long time. He’s heading into Coors Field with a .229 batting average and six home runs!
James Wood even leaves the opposing broadcast in shock with his power! pic.twitter.com/uAGu08ZG8w
— MLB (@MLB) April 12, 2025
Currently, Wood is tied for the third-most home runs in Major League Baseball. That puts him alongside the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout! Although Wood is highly unlikely to keep pace with those two, he’s red-hot right now and has a favorable matchup versus Rockies’ starter Chase Dollander.
The pitcher has been rocky through 10.2 innings this season. He heads into Friday with a 5.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The main issue with Dollander is the home run ball. He has allowed four home runs in just two starts! He’s getting throttled right now, and I can see Wood capitalizing with another long ball.
In other words, Wood is one of the best home run prop bets today.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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