Best Home Run Bets Today – MLB HR Predictions

Best Home Run Bets Today – MLB HR Predictions

Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.

They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.

If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them.

Best Home Run Bets Today, June 13

Home Run BetsBookmaker
Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (+200)BetWhale
Juan Soto – New York Yankees (+300)Bovada
Mookie Betts – LA Dodgers (+430)BetWhale

Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for June 13 (With Reasoning)

After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for June 13:

Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (+200)

A night after the Yankees torched the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman, they are expected to do the same on Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are a heavy favorite on the moneyline over the Royals.

With Alec Marsh on the bump for the Rangers, the opponents should feast on Kansas City’ pitching. Marsh is having issues keeping the ball in the park. He’s yielded five home runs in his last three starts! Overall, this season, Marsh has been tagged for eight home runs in 11 starts.

The pitcher owns a 7.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in his last three appearances. Aaron Judge is hitting .500 in two at-bats against Marsh. Judge leads the Yankees and Major Leagues with 25 home runs in 2024! He’s hit 20 of his dingers against right-handed pitchers.

With Marsh leaving meatballs over the middle of the plate, Judge is likely to take the 26-year-old deep. The weather is heating up, which should be ripe for balls carrying at Kauffman. Judge is one hitter who should take full advantage!

The Bet
Judge to Hit Home Run

Juan Soto – New York Yankees (+300)

The big bats are expected to flourish for the Yankees in Kansas City. As Marsh struggles to get into a rhythm against the confident Yankees, he should be susceptible to two more home runs on Thursday.

Juan Soto is another hitter who should be able to exploit Marsh’s mistakes. In addition to the five long balls Soto has conceded in his previous three starts, he’s gotten throttled for seven home runs over his previous six.

Soto hasn’t been shy about unloading his power against right-handed pitching. 14 of his 17 long balls have been against righties. Currently, the star is tied for sixth in the Major Leagues, with 17 home runs on the year!

Look for another big night for the Yankees’ bats, with Soto getting into the fun with a homer at Kauffman Stadium! Consider adding him to your home run props card for Thursday.

The Bet
Soto to Hit Home Run

Mookie Betts – Los Angeles Dodgers (+430)

The Orioles are unlikely to be the only team hitting balls over the fence tonight. Rookie prospect Cade Povich will make his second Major League start for the O’s this evening.

The pitcher gets the call despite getting touched up for six earned runs in his debut. He lasted 5.1 innings, allowing five hits, four walks, and a home run. The 24-year-old exited the ball game with a 10.12 ERA and 1.69 WHIP.

His numbers should come down, but the Braves are a tough lineup. Notably, Marcell Ozuna is a load to handle for any pitcher. Ozuna leads the Braves with 18 home runs, and it isn’t even close.

He’s the only Brave to have gotten into double-digit home runs thus far this season. Ozuna has been swinging the bat well, with a .316 batting average and .993 OPS. Over his last five starts, the guy’s notched eight hits and a home run.

The Braves’ DH has two home runs in his previous nine games, and has a solid chance of adding a third in ten tonight! Side with Ozuna in what is expected to be a home run fest at Camden Yards this evening.

The Bet
Betts to Hit Home Run

How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?

Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.

Here’s exactly how we do that:

  1. We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date but also check the most recent trends.

    That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.

    You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.

  2. The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.

    Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.

  3. The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.

    Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.

  4. Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.

    That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the standings.

    The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.

  5. If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.

    The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.

    At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.

Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.

  • Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
  • BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
  • BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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