78th Tony Awards Betting Odds and Predictions

Tonys 2025 Best Musical Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Tony for Best Musical is coming down to Maybe Happy Ending and Death Becomes Her. Following Death Becomes Her, it would be an upset for any other film to capture this prestigious honor.

Maybe Happy Ending, directed by 2023 Tony winner Michael Arden, has the inside track to capturing his second. Starring Darren Criss and Helen J. Shen, Maybe Happy Ending is a look into the future of a futuristic Seoul, South Korea.

Oliver, a helperbot, develops a close relationship with a retired helperbot, Claire. The romantic journey follows Oliver and Claire as they explore an unlikely romance and seek to connect with their former owner.

Based on the book written by Hue Park and Will Aronson, the musical is an interesting twist on a unique love story. With a 95% score on Show Score, Maybe Happy Ending has been a massive hit on Broadway. It also edges out Death Becomes Her’s score of 93%.

Arden is in a good position to win his second Tony in two years with his beautiful work on Maybe Happy Ending. I think the musical should be a -350 favorite, so there is still decent value for your Tony Awards picks at -200!

78^th Tony Awards Best Play Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

There is a three-play race between The Hills of California, Oh, Mary!, and John Proctor is the Villain. Sam Mendes’ The Hills of California has a slim advantage with a 50% implied chance over Oh Mary! at 44.4%.

However, the best value on the board is on John Proctor is the Villain at +250 odds. Despite the 28.6% implied probability by oddsmakers, I have Director Danya Taymor down for having a better chance than the odds suggest.

In 2024, Taymor won the Tony for Best Direction of a Musical and has a solid opportunity to win the top prize for a play this year. John Proctor is the Villain has been on fire with the audiences on Broadway.

The play has notched a 94% approval rating with audiences on Show Score and continues to generate buzz. Sadie Sink, who portrays Shelby Holcomb, is the target of gossip and rumors at her high school in Georgia after leaving for months.

Upon her return, Holcomb has to navigate through a series of scandals and controversies in her small town. With audiences falling in love with the play, I am confident that voters are feeling the same.

At the very least, the price on this wager is too good to pass on at +250.

Tony Awards 2025 Best Leading Actor in a Musical Odds, Prediction, Betting Pick

With Maybe Happy Ending expected to scoop up several awards on June 8, Criss should be preparing his acceptance speech for Best Leading Actor in a Musical.

He captivates audiences with the portrayal of Oliver in the hit musical, and now it’s time for his big reward. He has perfect chemistry with Shen and does a fantastic job of taking the audience on a journey through their wacky relationship on stage. Making a robot character come to life without appearing stiff and dull isn’t simple, but Criss is on point.

This category is loaded with quality talent, but Criss can win his first Tony this year. Surprisingly, he has never even been nominated for a Tony despite his talent and work over the years.

One of the big reasons Maybe Happy Ending is receiving so much praise and favored to win Best Musical is because of Criss’ performance.

After getting the nod, expect the former Glee star to continue rolling with a victory! With this in mind, Criss’ 2025 Tony Awards betting odds are worth a look, especially in a parlay considering this price of -300.

78^th Tonys Best Leading Actress in a Musical Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The favorite to win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Musical is a bit surprising to me. I have Audra McDonald as a slight betting favorite over Nicole Scherzinger, but the odds disagree.

Scherzinger is great in Sunset Blvd., but she has the unfortunate privilege of being up against McDonald. These two are easily by far the most likely winners, with the underdogs facing long odds for this Tony!

The Pussycat Doll turned Broadway powerhouse holds a 60% implied probability to win. McDonald doesn’t have as favorable of a chance at 47.6%, according to the latest Tonys 2025 odds, but I beg to differ.

Portraying Mama Rose in Gypsy, McDonald is spectacular and versatile in her performance. She plays the role of a single mother determined to turn her daughters into stars perfectly.

McDonald embodies the role with strong vocals, and in my opinion, is largely responsible for the musical’s seven Tony nominations!

At plus odds, McDonald is an excellent wager as one of the best 2025 Tony Awards predictions to win.