2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Odds and Predictions – Who Lifts the World Cup Trophy?

• World Cup Wins: 1 (2010)
• 2022 World Cup: Round of 16
• Manager: Luis de la Fuente
• Key Players: Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, Unai Simon/David Raya

Spain seems to be back after a down period that followed an incredible 2008-2012 run where they won the World Cup, and back-to-back European Championships. They’ve gone out in the Round of 16 in each of the last two World Cups, but they’re coming off a terrific run through Euro 2024 that resulted in the title.

SPAIN REACH THE WORLD CUP FINAL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010 🇪🇸 pic.twitter.com/yHUCV4FlsM

— B/R Football (@brfootball) July 14, 2026

All eyes will be on Lamine Yamal, who will turn 19 in the middle of the 2026 World Cup. The Barcelona wonderkid is one of the favorites in the Ballon d’Or odds, and he won Young Player of the Tournament at Euro 2024. Yamal was slated to miss the first couple of games due to a hamstring injury, but he now looks ready.

It’s not just Yamal, as Spain had six players in the Euro 2024 Team of the Tournament. 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri marshals the midfield, but he’s battled injury over the last year. The same goes for Pedri, Barcelona’s 23-year-old do-everything midfielder. If everyone is healthy, it’s difficult to find a better midfield in the world than “La Roja”.

The defense is my concern with Spain. Athletic Bilbao’s Unai Simon will get the goalkeeper’s gloves over Arsenal’s David Raya, at least to start the World Cup. But the defense in front of Simon (or Raya) with Spain isn’t as good as Arsenal’s. Pau Cubarsí is solid, but he’s still 19. Marc Cucurella leads a decent fullback group, but Spain can be soft in the middle of the back four.

However, manager Luis de la Fuente has a marvelous set of attacking talent, and that’s why Spain sits at the top of the FIFA World Cup winner odds with France! If the team’s midfield is healthy, they can certainly make up for the deficiencies at the back.

But if de la Fuente fails to win with this squad, a managerial change could be on the horizon. Pep Guardiola is leaving Manchester City, and one of the best managers in soccer history played 47 times for Spain, including at the 1994 World Cup.

The seat for de la Fuente might be a little warm after Spain’s underwhelming Group H efforts. They were held 0-0 by Cape Verde, but looked terrific in a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, led by Yamal. Spain needed a goalkeeping error to beat Uruguay 1-0 to win the group.

You have to think they needed to find another gear in order to challenge France, as the FIFA World Cup winner odds reflect that. There were signs that Spain is getting there against Austria, though, when the team looked very comfortable for most of the match and won by 3-0.

Spain also dominated large periods of their 1-0 win over Portugal, but they did need a 91st-minute goal from Mikel Merino to end Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup career. Merino provided the late heroics once again, scoring in the 88th minute as Belgium backup goalkeeper Senne Lammens spilled a rebound in his direction to give Spain a late 2-1 win.

However, they found that gear against France in an absolutely tremendous performance, as Mikel Oyarzabal scored from a penalty won by Yamal, and Pedro Porro added another. As good as Spain were going forward, they smothered France’s vaunted attack, holding the opposition to 0.31 xG (expected goals) and no big chances. If they play that way in Sunday’s final, they’ll be tough to beat!

• World Cup Wins: 3 (1978, 1986, 2022)
• 2022 World Cup: Winners
• Manager: Lionel Scaloni
• Key Players: Lionel Messi, Emiliano Martinez, Alexis Mac Allister, Cristian Romero

Lionel Messi finally won a World Cup with Argentina to add to his GOAT resume as he led them to the 2022 title. He then captained “La Albiceleste” to the win at the 2024 Copa América.

At 39 years of age, Lionel Messi is having a BETTER 2026 World Cup campaign statistically compared to 2022 🇦🇷🤯#FIFAWorldCup | #WorldCup | #Argentina | #Messi pic.twitter.com/VpoRkg3s1t

— DAZN Football (@DAZNFootball) July 16, 2026

Messi had been coy about playing in this World Cup, as he’ll turn 39 during the tournament. But he was named in the final squad, along with 16 other players from the 2022 title team. Speaking of, Messi was subbed off in Inter Miami’s final match before their World Cup break, complaining of muscle fatigue. However, it doesn’t appear to be serious. To say he has looked good so far is an understatement.

Manager Lionel Scaloni still has to find a way to take pressure off Messi. I expect him to lean more on Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez. Martinez led Copa América in scoring, while Alvarez scored four goals at the 2022 World Cup. Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister are set in midfield, but there’s not much depth after them.

The defense is also a concern as Nicolás Otamendi turned 38 in February, and Cristian Romero was injured, but should be fine to play the World Cup. Lisandro Martinez also had injury problems this season. Emi Martinez was inconsistent with Aston Villa this season. He did help Villa to the Europa League title, but Martinez suffered a fractured finger. He started the first two games between the sticks for Argentina. The defense could be a problem as we get further into the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Argentina have been good so far, which is why they are the second favorite. Messi’s six goals leads the World Cup, and Argentina finally got goals from other players as Giovanni Lo Celso and Lautaro Martinez scored in the final group game against Jordan.

The next hurdle was supposed to be easy, as Argentina faced World Cup debutants Cape Verde on July 3 in Miami. However, they were taken to the brink, beating Cape Verde 3-2 in extra time, with Messi scoring the opener. Argentina then needed a furious rally from two goals down, inspired by Messi, to beat Egypt 3-2 with three goals between the 79th and 92nd minute. They needed extra time to fend off Switzerland, but goals from Mac Allister, Alvarez, and Martinez gave the defending champs a 3-1 win.

The England win may have been the best yet, as England decided it would be a good idea and give Argentina the ball for the final 25 minutes of the game. Messi notched a pair of assists as Fernandez hit a great equalizer in the 85th minute, and Lautaro Martinez scored the winner in the 92nd minute of a famous 2-1 win. Argentina has now scored ten goals in the 80th minute or later.

Can the defending champions do it one more time? If you think they can, there is some value in their FIFA World Cup winner odds.