This week on the PGA Tour we head to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic, a tournament that almost always turns into one of the lowest scoring events of the season. On paper it’s a 7327-yard par 71, but don’t let the yardage fool you. This course plays much shorter than the scorecard suggests.
I explain why in my course analysis below, after which I provide my predictions and best bets for the John Deere Classic 2026.
2026 John Deere Classic Course Analysis
Unlike many events where you can really narrow the field down by identifying one or two standout attributes, TPC Deere Run is a much more open test. There isn’t a huge emphasis on driving the golf ball, and there aren’t many intricate details that separate one player from another. If you can keep the ball in play off the tee, you’re generally giving yourself every chance.
Where this tournament is won is with the wedges and the putter. Players are going to have plenty of opportunities from inside 150 yards. As a result, it becomes a case of who can consistently hit their numbers with the approach shots and then convert those chances on the greens.
It’s very much a point-and-shoot golf course, and if someone gets hot with the putter, they can very quickly shoot a 62 or 63 and climb the leaderboard.
Personally, I prefer the tougher golf courses where there are more angles to dissect and it’s easier to separate the field. Those types of events allow you to really dig into the statistics and find a niche angle that others might overlook.
This week is a little different. Because the course is so straightforward and scoring is expected to be so low, it naturally brings a much larger group of players into contention. There is definitely more guesswork involved than usual.
As always, I started with a longlist before narrowing it down to my final selections. This week I’ve settled on a three-man squad. In an event like this, where so many players have a realistic chance, I didn’t feel the need to overcomplicate things.
I think all three have the right attributes to thrive around TPC Deere Run, and if one of them catches fire with the wedges and putter, they’ll have every chance of being there on Sunday afternoon. As always, gamble responsibly, and enjoy what should be another entertaining week on the PGA Tour.
With that in mind, here are my John Deeree Classic best winner bets for 2026.
1. Rickie Fowler (+4000)
This could be a good time to catch Rickie Fowler. His game hasn’t been at its best over the past couple of seasons, but he looks like a player determined to get back to where he belongs.
There have been plenty of signs this year that things are moving in the right direction. When you look at his resume, the quality he possesses and some of the golf he’s produced this season, you can definitely make a case for him this week.
Fowler’s a six time PGA Tour winner, with victories in prestigious events such as The Players Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship. For many years he was one of the most consistent players on Tour, and while his game disappeared for a period towards this end of his career, he fought his way back with a strong 2023.
The veteran then lost his way again, but it now feels like he’s beginning to rediscover that level. Four top 10 finishes this season suggest his game is heading in the right direction, and they bring him firmly into the conversation this week.
His iron play and wedge game have always been real strengths, and I’ve always been a big fan of his putting. That’s probably been the most consistent part of Rickie’s game throughout his career. It should help him on a course like TPC Deere Run, where wedges and putting are so important, so that has to be seen as a major positive. His driving isn’t always great, but it doesn’t really need to be here so I can look past that
He’s certainly no certainty to win, but he absolutely has the game to do it. I still believe there’s at least one more PGA Tour victory left in Rickie Fowler, and this could be the type of golf course that allows him to show it, especially in a field where he’s one of the only six players inside the world top 50.
2. Matt Wallace (+4500)
I think it could pay to have a small go on Matt Wallace this week. He’s a proven winner on both the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, and his game has been in good shape for much of this season.
It’s been a busy campaign for him though, and he’s made no secret of the fact that one of his main goals is to be part of next year’s Ryder Cup team. To give himself a realistic chance of making that side, I think he probably needs another victory this season at least.
Wallace knows he needs to make a statement, especially now that Aaron Rai has become a major champion, which surely puts him in a very strong position for selection.
Matt finished runner up at the Valero Texas Open earlier in the season, which remains his only top 10 finish on the PGA Tour this year. That said, there have been plenty of other encouraging signs.
He shot 20 under at the Zurich Classic, showing the low scoring is still there, and he arrives here on the back of another runner up finish at the Italian Open on the DP World Tour.
It’s also worth noting that Wallace has been involved in Open Championship Final Qualifying this week, so it’s certainly been a busy schedule. I actually don’t see that as a huge negative though. If anything, it tells me he’s full of motivation and determined to give himself every opportunity.
We already know his game is good enough to win at this level, and with many of the biggest names absent this week, it presents him with a genuine opportunity. I think he has every chance of getting himself into contention, and I like the fact he’s arriving here with real purpose and plenty of incentive to perform.
3. Andrew Novak (+4000)
Andrew Novak is, for me, one of the best course fits here this week. He’s a really strong all-round player, and I like the fact that he’s naturally aggressive and willing to attack. This is exactly the type of course where you can go really low.
His putting is probably the slightly weaker part of his game, but when he’s striking it well from tee to green, it tends to hold up well enough to keep him in contention. And that’s really all he needs here to give himself a chance. He’s also played well at this venue in previous years, which suggests he clearly enjoys the setup.
When Novak’s game clicks, his iron play is excellent. That’s the key reason I like him this week. On a course where approach shots and birdie chances are going to decide everything, he has all the tools to put together a very low score.
The fit is a big plus for me, and I’d be pretty disappointed if he wasn’t at least in the top 20 this week. Novak has all the attributes required to win here, and as a proven winner already, he has as good a chance as anyone this week, in what is an extremely open tournament.
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