The PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind this week for the FedEx St Jude Championship, and we have a really strong field to get stuck into. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler headline the event, with the pair drawn together in the opening two rounds.
Will one of the favorites win this one, or can someone else deliver a victory? I provide my predictions and best bets here, but first, let’s analyze the course.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Analysis
TPC Southwind is a demanding par 70 where accuracy, quality iron play and a good short game are all important. It’s not a course where you can simply overpower the layout, so I’m looking for players who can stay out of trouble and take advantage when the birdie chances arrive.
I’ve put together a four-man squad for the event, including one huge-priced outsider who I think is capable of significantly outperforming his odds. Hopefully we’ve found the right combination and can land another big winner.
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1. Sam Burns (+2200)
The best bet of the week for me has to be Sam Burns. He has been in excellent form all season long, and the credentials he has to offer certainly put him bang in the mix this week.
This season, Sam Burns has been highly competitive in the Majors and in other big tournaments too, and his outstanding short game can be rewarded here at TPW Southwind. Often you see players not quite on the level to win a Major but pick up the big events outside of those four, and that’s exactly how I see Sam Burns.
Off the tee, his game is pretty solid, but his iron play and putting are outstanding when he gets going. If Sam finds that this week, then there is no reason why he shouldn’t be getting very competitive. I think he has a huge chance this week, and I can already see his name on the trophy. Really sweet on his chances in this tournament.
2. Chris Gotterup (+4000)
Next up we have Chris Gotterup, who has enjoyed a rapid rise into the top 10 in the world rankings, and I think this course is right up his street.
He is similar to Sam Burns in the sense that he hasn’t won a Major yet, but I think it’s coming. Before then though, he is more than capable of picking up a few more big tournaments, especially considering how quickly he has risen and how much confidence he must have in his game.
His golf swing is incredibly unique and miles away from the traditional fundamentals, but he makes it work extremely well and has already picked up multiple wins on tour in a very short space of time.
The driving isn’t ideal for this course, but from fairway to green, I see very few issues at all. His iron play has been excellent, the putting has improved, and there isn’t a huge amount not to like about his chances. I’d be surprised if he wasn’t well up the leaderboard come Sunday.
3. Nicolai Hojgaard (+8000)
Nicolai Hojgaard is a player for the big occasions, and I think he comes to TPC Southwind as one of the better course fits in the field.
He is excellent off the tee, but his irons have arguably been the strongest part of his game, and I expect him to hit plenty of greens this week. He has one of those really repeatable three-quarter swings, which not only gives him consistency but also a huge amount of control with his irons. That sort of distance control can be a massive advantage around a course like this.
He is undoubtedly a top-class operator, and although he hasn’t won as much as you might expect, the ability is certainly there. This looks like a course that can suit him really well, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nicolai Hojgaard right in the mix come the weekend. Worth a small double with his brother too on the DP World Tour.
4. Matti Schmid (+40000)
Matti Schmid is probably going to be a surprise addition to my squad this week, but he is in the field this week on merit, so don’t be fooled by his price.
He has been consistently posting good numbers on the PGA Tour and I love his calm demeanor on the golf course. He is very much a one shot at a time type of player, and that has enabled him to become more consistent in the long run.
His driving can be hit and miss, but like the remainder of my squad, the best attributes come from fairway to green, but Matti Schmid also has a deadly putter too. It’s important when picking your players, not to compare them to others in the field, but instead to match the player to the course, and Matti Schmid definitely has the tools to score well around here, so he gets a small vote as my longshot this week, and don’t be surprised to see him high up the leaderboard.
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