NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 15: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Paolo Banchero +650 (Magic vs. 76ers)

For one of tonight’s NBA first basket prop bets, Paolo Banchero stands out as a strong value play as the Orlando Magic face the Philadelphia 76ers at +650 odds.

Orlando enters this play-in matchup with a clear advantage at the opening tip, winning 72.3% of jump balls, second-best in the NBA. In contrast, Philadelphia sits at just 46.3%, giving the Magic a strong likelihood of controlling the first possession and getting the opening shot.

If Orlando secures that first look, Banchero is the most reliable option to capitalize. He’s the focal point of the offense and continues to produce at a high level.

Paolo Banchero 31 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST, 3 STL, 10/16 FG, 1/2 3FG, 10/10 FT, 76% TS vs Pistons pic.twitter.com/2kSivbSwdk https://t.co/amVAsw1PsR

— Basketball Performances (@NBAPerformances) April 7, 2026

Banchero is averaging 22.2 points per game on 45.9% shooting, and he’s been in strong form with 20 or more points in four of his last five games. His ability to attack early and create scoring opportunities makes him a prime candidate for the first basket.

With elite jump ball positioning and consistent scoring production, +650 odds offer excellent value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

Stephen Curry +750 (Warriors vs. Clippers)

Stephen Curry offers tremendous value to score the first points as the Golden State Warriors face the Los Angeles Clippers at +750 odds.

Golden State holds a slight edge in jump ball success, which could be enough to secure the opening possession in what should be a tight play-in matchup. That small advantage is critical in a market where the first shot opportunity often decides the outcome.

Even with expectations of limited minutes due to his recovery from a knee injury, Curry is projected to start. That alone makes him intriguing at this price. He does not need an extended run to make an impact and is fully capable of scoring within the first few seconds of the game.

STEPH CURRY INSANE RETURN GAME 🤯

29 PTS
11-21 FG
5-10 3PM

BACK LIKE HE NEVER LEFT 🙌 pic.twitter.com/phzLMGWxXV

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 6, 2026

Curry averaged 26.6 points per game on 46.8% shooting and showed strong form against this same opponent with 24 points and four made threes in his last meeting.

At +750, the price is simply too good to ignore for a player of Curry’s caliber. With elite shot making ability and instant scoring potential, he is a high upside first basket option tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.