NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 20: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Raptors vs. Cavaliers)

For one of the best NBA first basket props today in the NBA Playoffs, Donovan Mitchell stands out as a strong play as the Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Toronto Raptors at +500 odds.

Cleveland enters Game 2 with a clear edge at the opening tip, winning 65.1% of jump balls compared to just 43.4% for Toronto. That advantage should give the Cavaliers the first possession and an early opportunity to get on the board.

If Cleveland controls the opening sequence, Mitchell is the most logical option to capitalize. He’s the team’s primary scorer and consistently the focal point of the offense, especially in high leverage playoff situations.

Donovan Mitchell (32p) scored at all three levels as the Cavs protected homecourt in Game 1 😤

Game 2: Monday, 7 PM ET, Peacock pic.twitter.com/Mk6znV6NNU

— NBA (@NBA) April 18, 2026

Mitchell is averaging 27.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting, while also leading the team with 20 field goal attempts per game. That volume and usage make him a prime candidate to take the first shot.

With the Cavaliers likely to dictate the opening possession and Mitchell’s aggressive scoring, +500 odds offer strong value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

Nikola Jokic +500 (Timberwolves vs. Nuggets)

For another one of the best NBA first scorer bets tonight, Nikola Jokic is a strong and reliable option as the Denver Nuggets face the Minnesota Timberwolves at +500 odds in Game 2.

Denver holds a slight but meaningful edge at the opening tip, winning 55.4% of jump balls compared to 51.8% for Minnesota. That advantage should give the Nuggets a good chance to control the first possession and dictate the opening sequence.

If Denver gets the first look, Jokic is the clear focal point. His versatility allows him to score from anywhere on the floor, making him a constant threat in scripted opening plays.

"Too smart… too big… too strong."

23, 11 and 10 for the Joker late in Game 1 💪 https://t.co/pg1v3sLgsD pic.twitter.com/qvGfscdmRN

— NBA (@NBA) April 18, 2026

Jokic is averaging 27.7 points per game on an efficient 56.9% shooting, and he’s been remarkably consistent with 22 or more points in 10 of his last 12 games. That steady production highlights both his usage and ability to convert early opportunities.

With the Nuggets likely to get the first possession and Jokic’s all around scoring ability, +500 odds offer solid value for a first basket prop bet tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.