NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 23: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +550 (Cavaliers vs. Raptors)

The first basket market in this matchup favors Cleveland controlling the opening possession, and that creates a strong setup for Donovan Mitchell.

The Cavaliers have dominated the jump circle, winning 65.5% of tip offs compared to just 42.9% for Toronto. That edge gives Cleveland a clear path to the first shot and increases the likelihood of them opening the scoring.

With that expected advantage, Mitchell offers the best value among Cleveland’s options. While Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are factors early, Mitchell’s role and current form make him the more appealing choice. He has been aggressive throughout this series, logging 43 shot attempts over the first two games.

Donovan Mitchell in Game 1 and 2:

31.0 PPG
5.0 RPG
1.5 SPG
56/47%

Top __ SG in the league. pic.twitter.com/a3BJmVQtk6

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 21, 2026

That volume has translated into elite production. Mitchell posted 32 and 30 points in those outings and has now scored at least 30 points in four straight games. His scoring rhythm and willingness to attack early make him a strong candidate.

At +550 odds, Mitchell stands out as a top first basket pick.

Jamal Murray +500 (Nuggets vs. Timberwolves)

The first basket odds in this Game 3 matchup offers value on a guard who is finding his rhythm at the right time. Jamal Murray stands out as a strong option to open the scoring as he looks to stay hot against Minnesota.

With Denver holding a slight edge in the jump circle, the Nuggets have a solid chance to control the first possession and generate the opening shot.

Murray’s recent form only strengthens the case. He is coming off back to back 30 point performances, racking up 47 field goal attempts across those games. That level of usage highlights just how involved he is early and often in the offense.

JAMAL MURRAY BEATS THE Q2 BUZZER FROM BEYOND HALF-COURT 🎯

HE HAD 23 PTS (5 3PM) IN THE FIRST HALF 🔥

WE ARE TIED AT THE BREAK IN GAME 2! pic.twitter.com/tna3lAPGla

— NBA (@NBA) April 21, 2026

Over the season, Murray averaged 25.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting while putting up a career high 18.1 field goal attempts per contest. His aggressive scoring mindset and current momentum make him a prime candidate here.

At +500 odds, Murray is a strong pick to score the first basket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.