NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, April 24: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Tyrese Maxey +500 (Celtics vs. 76ers)

The NBA first basket prop bets in this matchup leans toward Philadelphia gaining the early edge, and that opens the door for Tyrese Maxey to deliver.

The 76ers hold a slight advantage in the jump circle with a 47.6% success rate compared to 41.7% for Boston, giving them a better chance to control the first possession and set the tone.

If Philadelphia gets that opening look, Maxey is a strong candidate to take it. His playoff form has carried over from an excellent regular season where he posted a career high 28.3 points per game. Through two games against Boston, he has already put up 50 points on 48 field goal attempts, showing both confidence and volume.

https://t.co/vxrwG4YT8r pic.twitter.com/OF2uVernbG

— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) April 22, 2026

Maxey’s aggressive scoring profile makes him ideal for this market. He averaged 21.4 field goal attempts during the season and consistently looks to attack early. At +500 odds, Maxey stands out as one of the top options to score the first points.

LeBron James +550 (Lakers vs. Rockets)

The first basket market in this matchup points toward the Lakers controlling the opening possession, and that sets up well for LeBron James to cash. Los Angeles holds a clear edge in the jump circle with a 65.5% success rate compared to just 35.7% for Houston, giving them a strong chance to take the first shot of the game.

LEBRON DOING REVERSE WINDMILLS IN YEAR 23 🤯👑 pic.twitter.com/CEZi9WYko5

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 22, 2026

With key injuries in the lineup, James has taken on a larger offensive role and become the focal point early in games. He led the Lakers in Game 2 with 28 points on 20 field goal attempts, and he has now logged at least 20 attempts in three straight matchups.

That uptick in volume is notable when compared to his regular season average of 15.3 shots per game. James is clearly being asked to do more and has responded with aggressive scoring.

At +550 odds, he stands out as one of the best bets to score the first basket.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.